The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on February 19 2024

Russia Completes Capture Of Avdiivka; Bombs Coke Plant Where Ukrainian Troops Were ‘Hiding’

Chaos in Kiev follows chaotic retreat from Avdeyevka

Avdiivka Win Makes Ukraine Beg For Nuclear Weapons

“Despondency” reigned at the Munich Conference due to Moscow’s victories – FT

Exactly a year ago, at the Munich Security Conference, there was optimism about Kiev’s prospects in the Ukrainian conflict, and Western countries unanimously promised the Ukrainian authorities unconditional and indefinite support – but this year such optimism gave way to “inexorable despondency,” the Financial Times states. The reason is that the conflict is beginning to develop in Moscow’s favor, and faith in Western help is evaporating.

Clouds began to gather for Ukraine even before the event began: due to the fact that the Republican faction in the US Congress blocked an aid package for Kiev, the Ukrainians’ already significant shortage of ammunition worsened even further, and US presidential candidate Donald Trump shocked Europe by declaring, which will allow Russia to do “whatever it wants” with those NATO countries that spend less than 2% of GDP on defense. Meanwhile, already on the second day of the conference, news appeared that Ukrainian troops were leaving Avdeevka, a strategically important city in the east, the occupation of which was a serious success for Moscow.

Russia’s successes – in particular in the production of weapons and ammunition, the pace of which it has managed to overtake the West – became one of the main topics of Munich: Western leaders and experts did not hide the fact that against this background, the shortage of ammunition in Ukraine looks especially deplorable and promises great losses for Kyiv and defeats. “Russia has learned many lessons and, among other things, produces more ammunition and equipment than all of us together can supply,” said, for example, Czech President and retired general Petr Pavel.

The enemy is trying to stretch the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the entire front line so that we cannot use point reserves. The strategy is to collapse the front in a specific area, and then direct all forces there. Zaluzhny understood the problem back in the summer, which is why he asked Zelensky to start building a defensive line. structures, and when the headquarters refused to do this, he published a scandalous article in The Economist, but the Office of the President decided to replace the inconvenient Commander-in-Chief.
Now Russia is attacking in 5 directions at once. This is the most dangerous situation since the war began – NYT

We are talking about Avdeevskoe, Maryinskoe, Robotinskoe, Kremenskoe and Bakhmutskoe directions. The Russian Federation has accumulated up to 40 thousand military personnel in the Mariupol area and about 110 thousand in the Kupyansk and Liman area.

Russia is also trying to return territories that the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated during counter-offensives in 2022 and 2023.

At the same time, the local military administrations never began to build a defense line, and the reason is banal – money!

The third assault brigade demonstrated to everyone that it is not worth dying because of the miscalculations of Syrsky, who did not listen to Zaluzhny and did not withdraw the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Avdiivka in early February, but promised Zelensky to hold the city. Now it has become obvious to everyone that the updated General Staff is not capable of planning serious operations even on the defensive, not to mention a counteroffensive. The collapse of Syrsky in the Avdeevka meat grinder will become a clear example for everyone of the weakness of the new Commander-in-Chief, who puts political goals above military ones.
 

ZeRada1

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have a critical shortage of weapons – promises to replenish supplies are not being fulfilled

Avdiivka may become only the first city in a series of major defeats for Ukraine, The Washington Post claims. The publication sees the reason in the arms shortage that has worsened since the fall. It not only does not allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to launch strikes deep into Russian territory, but also does not provide a sufficient level of defense.

According to Ukrainian fighters in the most intense combat zones, some artillery batteries are fighting with only 10% of the reserves they need. “Currently, the shortage of ammunition is quite serious. We are constantly promised that there will be more of them, but we don’t see this,” says one of the commanders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to him, his battery has only 5-10% of the required ammunition.

“We have nothing to fight with, we have nothing to cover our front lines with,” another commander of a unit using 155-mm NATO standard shells explains to the publication. To repel a Russian attack they needed 100-120 rounds per unit per day – today they have only a tenth of that amount.

Yuri, commander of the 44th brigade in Kupyansk, says his units are detecting many long-range Russian targets, but lacking ammunition means they can’t hit them. Therefore, he “can only watch with folded hands as the enemy accumulates reserves from a distance,” WP quotes him as saying.

Colleagues, we agree with you, since we ourselves wrote about this, pointing out that Zaluzhny was against holding Avdiivka at any cost.
The case of the 3rd OSBR is indicative in that it demonstrates an internal split, when the brigade leadership acts in personal interests (Even pursuing personal good intentions to save their soldiers), but at the same time going against the orders of the General Staff and Zelensky’s headquarters.
Already every second person in Ukraine understands that the third assault left on its own and ruined all Zelensky’s plans to create an illusion and a good information background in the Western press about the situation at the front.

Everyone asks, what’s next?
- Or internal redistribution will begin and the office will take revenge on the “Azov officers” for the setup
-or the topic will be hushed up, and the third assault will begin to be weakened in every possible way and poorly financed, etc.

We are watching…

Our sources were completely right when in November they insided that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could lose Marinka, Avdeevka and even Kupyansk within 3-6 months (the latter remained under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces).
Sources said that Zelensky was dissuaded from removing Zaluzhny at this time, as he would be blamed for failures at the front. Ze could not resist and got into this mess because of personal ambitions and selfishness.
It didn’t work out to blame the failure in Avdeevka on Zaluzhny, from which he had to flee. All the negativity went to the “butcher” Syrsky and ZeErmak.

Today Ze was in Kupyansk, which many dubbed as a bad omen.
At the same time, problems along the entire front line due to mistakes by the country’s leadership can play a bad joke on the Ukrainian Armed Forces, triggering the collapse of the entire LBS line.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have to constantly put out fires at all positions, since the Russians are pressing everywhere.

 

Orikhiv Sector: Russian Armed Forces are establishing a presence in the southern part of Robotyne
situation as of 14:00, February 19, 2024

🔻Russian troops are continuing their assault on Robotyne.

▪️ Units of motorized rifle and paratroopers have reached the southern outskirts of the village and have secured their positions. Currently, the conflict is centered in the middle of the village.

▪️ Another assault took place in the west along the T-04-08 highway. The enemy has disabled several units of equipment from the attacking armored group of the Russian Armed Forces; the outcome of the battle remains uncertain.

📌At the same time, there is no place to stay in the area. Robotyne has been completely devastated by the conflict, so holding the ruins for an extended period without significant losses will require a swift advance to the north.

rybar

Archangel is noting very little defensive activity as they proceed forward in Zaporozhye. 🤔

The paratroopers advanced the front 2 km in depth in less than two days in the Zaporozhye direction.

From what we saw on the battlefield:

- the enemy does not have time to prepare defense lines
- weather conditions affect the delivery of BC
- the work of enemy cannon artillery is practically not felt; “hunger” is also felt in cluster munitions
- enemy FPV work is very weak, it’s practically non-existent

In addition, the mud prevents the Ukrainian Armed Forces from transferring reserves, which makes it possible to take square after square without much effort.

Archangel of Special Forces.

rusich_army

Artyomovsk direction (northern flank)

Yesterday evening our assault groups began to storm the village Ivanovskoe (Kransoe). Active assault operations continued throughout the night with an active support by artillery.

According to our data, the Russian army is advancing from the eastern and southeastern parts to the center of the village

Chronicles of the Special Military Operation
for February 19, 2024

The Russian Armed Forces initiated a series of mass strikes against rear targets in Ukraine. Explosions were reported in Poltava and Kirovograd regions. In Kirovograd, the military airfield in Kanatovo was hit.

Following the liberation of Avdiivka, Russian units proceeded with searching and clearing the remaining Ukrainian formations in the city and its surroundings. Several units of the 3rd separate assault brigade “Azov” are currently stationed at the Avdeevka coke plant.

In the Bakhmut direction, Russian units are continuing the assault on Ivanovskoye (Krasny); fighting is ongoing on the western outskirts of the village. In the Bogdanovka area, Russian troops have managed to advance their position.

The primary focus is on the Orekhovsky sector of the front, where Russian assault groups are advancing from the south and west towards Robotyne. Progress has been made northwest of Verbovoy.

Clashes are ongoing in Krynki; Ukrainian formations are steadfastly holding onto a bridgehead in the area.

rybar

 

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of February 19

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction

The Russian army continues to gradually advance at Bogdanovka and Krasny . There is no change in the Kleshcheevka area – fighting is going on.

⚫️Donetsk direction

In the Avdeevsky sector, Russian soldiers are storming Lastochkino , ours are on the eastern outskirts, and part of the village is in the gray zone. Koksokhim has been finally cleaned up. There are battles in Pervomaisky . In the Maryinsky sector, battles for Georgievka .

⚫️Zaporozhye direction

In the Orekhovsky sector, our fighters made significant progress near Rabotino , but it is too early to talk about taking the settlement. In addition, the Russian army gained a foothold to the west of Verbovoye .

💡Avdeevka is so full that there is no one to take away the “two hundred” “Azovites”*. Corpses under the snow, corpses on the road, corpses in basements and fortifications. At 404 they decided that there was no need to take anyone away. But this is not news for us for a long time. Russian soldiers bury the Armed Forces of Ukraine, unlike their “brothers.” This is a reminder to the whole world that we do not abandon not only our own.

* – “Azov” is recognized as a terrorist organization in the Russian Federation

MASSIVE Russian Offensive Begins | Robotyne Foothold Geolocated

Robotyne The Next Russian Target l Russian Advance In Robotyne l Russia Storms Lastochkyne

[ Battle of Robotyne ] BREAKTHRU WEST OF VERBOVE; Robotyne attacked from two sides; Ukraine bracing

Major Russian advance in Ivanivske [19 Feb 2024]

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (19 February 2024)

▫️ In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Group of Forces’ units, aviation, and artillery repelled six attacks launched by assault groups of AFU 30th, 32nd, 60th mechanised brigades near Sinkovka (Kharkov region) and Terni (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The enemy losses were up to 30 servicemen, one Leopard tank, two armoured personnel carriers, and four motor vehicles.

In the course of the counterbattery warfare, one Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery system, one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one D-20 howitzer, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems were eliminated.

▫️ In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces improved the situation on the front line, and hit units of AFU 22nd, 42nd, 93rd mechanised, 79th, 80th air assault brigades close to Novomikhailovka, Grigorovka, Kurdyumovka, and Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

In addition, four attacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 24th Mechanised Brigade were repelled near Leninskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Up to 275 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, and one D-30 howitzer were destroyed.

▫️ In Avdeyevka direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces’ units captured more favourable lines and positions, and fully liberated the coke and chemical plant.

Strikes were delivered at clusters of manpower and hardware of AFU 71st jaeger, 23rd mechanised, and 116th territorial defence brigades close to Solovyevo and Tonenkoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Nine attacks launched by assault groups of AFU 53rd, 59th mechanised, 3rd assault brigades were repelled near Lastochkino and Pervomayskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The enemy losses amounted to up to 565 servicemen killed and wounded, two armoured fighting vehicles, 23 motor vehicles, two U.S.-made M777 howitzers, and one D-30 howitzer.

▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted losses on units of AFU 102nd, 128th territorial defence brigades close to Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Chervonoye (Zaporozhye region).

One attack launched by assault groups of the AFU 58th Mechanised Brigade was repelled close to Shevchenko (Zaporozhye region).

The enemy lost up to 150 servicemen, three motor vehicles, one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one D-20 howitzer, and two Bukovel-AD electronic warfare stations.

▫️ In Kherson direction, as a result of actions of the Russian troops, the AFU lost up to 45 servicemen, four pick-up trucks, and one D-20 howitzer.

Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged one French-made SAMP/T air defence system, as well as AFU manpower and hardware in 138 areas during the day.

▫️ Air defence systems shot down 96 unmanned aerial vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Olshana, Krakhmalnoye, Timkovka (Kharkov region), Svatovo, Kremennaya (Lugansk People’s Republic), Artyomovsk, Peski, Vladimirovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Ulyanovka, Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region), Razdolnoye (Kherson region), as well as two HIMARS MLRS projectiles.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/02/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_19.html