The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on February 22 2024

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The loss of Avdiivka has much worse consequences for the Ukrainian Armed Forces than Bakhmut.

The defeat in Avdiivka was a serious blow for the Ukrainian Armed Forces – a huge amount of effort was spent on holding the city. And the development of this situation threatens to undermine Kyiv’s position. Not only was an almost twenty-thousand-strong group of troops (a significant part of the front-line maneuver reserves) wiped out in defense, but also due to an ill-conceived retreat, up to a thousand soldiers were captured or went missing.

“This crushing defeat threatens to further undermine the already weakened morale of the Ukrainian army,” commented the situation in the West (in particular, journalists from The New York Times expressed this opinion in their material).

However, Avdiivka is not only about the death of thousands of Ukrainian military personnel. The fact is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost a unique fortified area, which took more than 8 years to build and was designed for a 70,000-strong group, and which was planned to be used as a support base for the capture of Donetsk (that is, this defeat threw the Ukrainian Armed Forces forces even further away from Donetsk and Lugansk and cut off from important logistics hubs) and there are actually no such fortified areas in Ukraine anymore.

Meanwhile, military experts are already predicting that Avdiivka may become only the preliminary culmination of a whole series of Russian conquests and Ukrainian defeats.

Without an American loan of $60 billion, Ukraine will not be able to conduct full-fledged military operations and will be forced to go on the defensive with a constant loss of territory. This is a consequence of the fact that during 2 years of military conflict, the Ukrainian authorities did not create anything similar to the defense line of the Russian Armed Forces, and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine did not find money for the “dragon’s teeth”, and the “cutting” of budget funds locally should not be discounted either.

As a result, Bankova will have to conduct combat operations entirely with manpower, increasing losses among the population. We see that this is why military commissars throughout Ukraine became more active even without an updated draft law on mobilization, packing up men for further sending to the front.

And against the backdrop of these events, sociologists are already recording a decrease in the level of trust of Ukrainian residents in the current government (this is evidenced by survey data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology). So, if in December 2023 77% of Ukrainians trusted the president, already in February Zelensky lost 13% – now about 64% of citizens trust him. At the same time, public distrust of the president increased from 22% to 35%, respectively.

Having lost Avdeevka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered the biggest defeat since the capture of Bakhmut by the Russian Armed Forces. However, as will be clear later, these are two completely different defeats, because the difference between Avdievka and Bakhmut is obvious.

1. Avdeevka is the “gate” to Donetsk. That is, Ukraine lost a unique fortified area, which took more than 8 years to build, which was designed for a 70,000-strong group and which was planned to be used as a support base for the capture of Donetsk. But the strategic importance of Bakhmut was minimal. The city became a new symbol as the stakes of the parties increased, and the President’s Office promoted the theme of the “Bakhmut fortress” only for media victories.

2. The Ukrainian Armed Forces near Bakhmut did not experience a shortage of ammunition at all. In Avdeevka, a completely opposite situation emerged: not only were the Russian Armed Forces able to increase production and saturate the battlefield with personnel (1/1.5-1.7 in personnel), but also in terms of shells the ratio was far from in favor of the Armed Forces: 1/10, for drones 1/3, plus the colossal density of Russian bombings by FABs.

3. The tactics of the Russian Armed Forces are slightly similar to Bakhmut, but significantly improved. The Russians have clearly learned how to fight better: the counter-battery component, coordination, and so on have greatly improved. In addition, a new element of tactics has appeared – logistical isolation of the battlefield. Without transportation and rotation, the forces of the defenders are quickly depleted. As a result, almost twenty thousand strong group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was wiped out, as well as a significant part of the maneuver front reserves. At the same time, the transfer of the 3rd Special Brigade to the city did not help to hold the city, where they stated that they were thrown into positions that simply did not exist. At the same time, the Ukrainian command did not even manage to organize a competent retreat: the equipment did not go under the FPV drones and artillery, that is, they all went out on their own, which significantly increased losses.

ZeRada1

Colleagues, Ze-Stavka completely failed the Avdeevsky case, the risks of which we have written about dozens of times.
We insided that some units were leaving positions without orders, we wrote that the OP abandoned the army in Avdeevka for situational political purposes, even at the moment when everyone understood that everything was over, but ZeErmak and Syrsky did not give the order to leave, but on the contrary demanded hold their positions, knowing that everyone who is there is already a “suicide bomber.”
At the same time, the OP threw reserves into meat in Krynki.

Now Bankovaya wants to shift responsibility to the ex-commander-in-chief for the failure, as we previously insided.

They work clumsily, but everyone in the OP is busy cutting budgets and tenders.

The collapse of Zee power is getting closer and the vacuum of legitimacy only accelerates this process.

All our sources indicate that Zelensky’s current meetings with the faction are in the nature of putting out a fire. The deputies want to “run away”; even money can no longer stop many from resigning their mandate and leaving. If you don’t leave, then you will be a scapegoat and will go to the bottom along with the ruling elite (RU) – one of the people’s deputies from SN anonymously comments on the situation.

All sources indicate that if the situation at the front continues in a negative trend, Ze’s rating will fall to its lowest levels by the fall. This will increase bickering and division. Ze, of course, will try to include even stronger repression and bribery, but this will not solve the problem, but will postpone it until the spring of 2025 with “bloody events.”

If Trump wins the election, then Zelensky will be made a “scapegoat” for the entire Ukrainian crisis, and everyone who remains in the game with him will receive a “stigma.”

That’s why everyone wants to get there before the “house of cards of the Empire” begins to collapse.

We are watching…

There is a catastrophic lack of money for the army and the functionaries have taken the path of publicly putting pressure on big businesses, forcing them to chip in on the “army of drones.”
This is an indicator that there is no longer anywhere to get money for the army and business had to be strangled/blackmailed.
Soon this shop will close and then it will be very sad.

As the source explained, you pay a “kickback” to the army and then you can cheat without paying the necessary taxes to the budget for social services. This is the road to the abyss. The state will not last that long.

The Office of the President is trying to insure itself against damage in the army and in war.
Office functionaries are pushing through the Verkhovna Rada a bill prohibiting the military from publishing certain information.

 Behind the beautiful text lies the real purpose of the law – to cement information about the “failures” of Zelensky’s headquarters in the army, and in the war in general. Now the conditional publications, which were from Avdiivka criticizing the authorities and military officials, will be regarded as “a leak of secret information that could harm the national interests of the state.” Simply put, this is an attempt to shut the mouth of all soldiers, all military opposition journalists, etc. – our source comments on this bill.

As usual, the authorities hide behind the interests of the state, but in reality they are saving their own skins.

This is very bad for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the country. Because you won’t be able to talk about the inaction or idiocy of military officials or authorities, otherwise you’ll get a criminal offense.
Welcome to complete “slavery” and dictatorship.

Odessa two arrivals to one location. Video of the Odessa public.
Arrivals are also recorded in the Odessa region.

Many have noticed that there is a severe shortage of air defense, and almost no missiles are being fired. Only small arms, which very rarely hit, and the consumption is huge.

New arrivals in Odessa.
They say they hit something hard. The explosion and roar was powerful.
The arrival was in the industrial part of the city (there are a lot of warehouses, workshops, hangars there).

Also arrivals in the south of the region.

NYT – Hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by advancing Russian units or disappeared during Ukraine’s chaotic retreat from the eastern city of Avdeevka, according to senior Western officials and soldiers fighting for Ukraine, a devastating loss that could deal a blow to already weakening morale.

   The Russian capture of Avdeevka has emerged as a significant symbolic loss for Ukrainian troops, a sign of the battlefield impact of the failure of the U.S. Congress, so far, to approve more military assistance as dwindling supplies of artillery shells make it even harder to hold the line.

   Estimates of how many Ukrainians were captured or missing vary, and a precise count may not be possible until Ukraine solidifies new defensive lines outside the city. But two soldiers with knowledge of Ukraine’s retreat estimated that 850 to 1,000 soldiers appear to have been captured or are unaccounted for. The Western officials said that range seemed accurate.

 

The Russian Armed Forces continue to push positions west of liberated Pobeda

Today, our troops control 30% of Novomikhailovka, which allows infantry to the north to advance to the west.

There are also reports that half of the villages of Lastochkino are being held by soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces began to retreat to positions near Orlovka.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping in Ugledar may fall “in the pincers,” and the 1st battalion is already almost in a “cauldron” and it’s time to take up the all-around defense, – TSN military correspondent

“A battalion of one brigade (in the Kurakhovsko-Maryinsky direction) can already form a perimeter defense. And these are several hundred of our soldiers. Because the enemy is around them. Because the flanks sank and our neighboring units could not hold them. Because the enemy has the strength more,” writes Yu. Kiriyenko.

And she calls on the Tavria OSUV to “wake up” and build a second line of defense there as soon as possible.

And Kurakhovo – “Get ready”.
“Fcking assault. Columns of equipment from two directions are coming towards our forces. It’s good that ours managed to accumulate a few shells and get reinforcements with people. In vain they didn’t pay enough attention to this direction. If the Russians advance there, then we will have another Bakhmut / Avdos. Only it will be Ugledar,” writes Kiriyenko.

Today, in the Kurakhovsko-Maryinsky direction, the Russian army has practically occupied the village of Pobeda and is advancing in Novomikhailovka, threatening Ugledar with a flank maneuver.

 

Orikhiv sector: combat in the center of Robotyne current situation: 13:00, February 22, 2024

🔻Russian troops are advancing in the area of the “Rabotinsky ledge”: currently, they have managed to push the front line back in a 5 km stretch to a depth of about a kilometer.

▪️ In Robotyne itself, battles are ongoing near the remains of a school in the village center, with gunfire directed outward. If Russian units can maintain control, the AFU will need to retreat to the village’s northern outskirts.

▪️ To the east, the Russian Armed Forces have dislodged the enemy from several strategic positions near Verbovoy, displacing Ukrainian forces from the Krivoy ravine. Furthermore, they have recaptured control of the Shirokaya gully: here, the enemy also retreated under Russian troop pressure.

🔻Overall, the situation for the Ukrainian group is challenging. The lack of personnel and the Russian Armed Forces’ successes south of Marinka are forcing them to disperse manpower in multiple directions, hindering the AFU from concentrating forces for a counteroffensive.

rybar

 

The Russian Armed Forces are moving forward west from Artemovsk (Bakhmut)

It is reported that our fighters have gained a foothold in the north and northeast of the village of Krasnoye (Ivanovskoye).

There is an offensive on the section of the road leading to Chasov Yar. The enemy is resisting.

Capturing Krasnoye will open the way to Chasov Yar.

 

Soledar direction: combat in Krasnoe current situation as of 20:00, February 22, 2024

🔻Russian troops have breached the enemy’s defenses on the northeastern outskirts of Ivanovsky (Krasny). Currently, several dozen houses have been secured, and Russian Armed Forces landing units are stationed there.

▪️ However, the precise front configuration is obscured by the “fog of war,” particularly since at least part of the plantings to the east of the settlement, if not under enemy control, are in a “gray zone.”

▪️ To the north, in the Chasov Yar area, the situation remains relatively unchanged. The enemy has released footage of attacks on the Russian units’ forward positions near the Valyanovka stopping point, indicating a lack of progress in that direction.

▪️ West of the Popovsky forest on the O0506 Khromovo – Chasiv Yar section, the Russian Armed Forces are continuing cautious offensive actions. On the northern flank in the Kleshcheevka area, Ukrainian Armed Forces positions have been identified at the Alabaster headquarters due to objective surveillance.

🔻The advancement of the Russian Armed Forces has been ongoing to some extent for the past two months. It is crucial at this point to maintain the initiative and consolidate the gained positions: the enemy is not prepared to surrender settlements without resistance.

rybar

The enemy reports our most powerful artillery barrage in the Kupyansk direction. It is reported that all calibers and the Airforce of Russia are working

AFU expects our powerful attack in the Kupyansk direction in the coming hours. The enemy is panicking – Ukromedia reports about an urgent meeting at the Ukrainian General Staff.

Kupyansk strategic direction.

The AFU urgently began to transfer personnel and equipment of three brigades from Kramatorsk and Dnipropetrovsk to Kupyansk. An evacuation headquarters was formed in Kupyansk.
Analysis of the operational situation indicates an attempt of the enemy to organize counterattack measures in the direction of Sinkovka and Kislovka.
At the same time with operational reserves of people and equipment in the opponents are just as bad.

In my humble opinion, Kupyansk will fall faster than Avdeevka. If the dynamics of combat operations of the RF Armed Forces is maintained, we can talk about the beginning of May this year.

condottieros

Kupyansk direction.

The Russian Armed Forces continued to destroy the enemy near Sinkovka and in the populated area itself.

The enemy is not going to leave this point, he snaps with all his might.

Our artillery and aviation are working without stopping.

The TOS-1 crew burns out Ukrainian dislocation points in the central and western parts of Sinkovka.

Our fighters are advancing from the northwestern and northeastern parts.

At night, Geran-2 UAVs struck throughout the Kupyansky district.

The enemy has a lot of air defense forces in the entire Kupyansk direction, they have spread out widely.

Activation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kupyansk is attributed to the advance of the Russian Armed Forces

According to “Condottiero (https://t.me/condottieros/2501),” the Kiev regime has initiated the urgent transfer of personnel and equipment from three brigades stationed in Kramatorsk and Dnepropetrovsk to Kupyansk.

Additionally, an evacuation headquarters has been established in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy.

Analysis of the operational situation suggests that the enemy is attempting to organize counterattack measures in the direction of Sinkovka and Kislovka.

However, it’s worth noting that the opponents’ operational reserves of personnel and equipment are equally limited.

Chronicles of the Special Military Operatio for February 22, 2024

Russian troops continue to strike enemy rear targets and military infrastructure, as well as advance through defenses on several sectors of the front.

Near Bakhmut, the Russian Armed Forces have reached the eastern outskirts of Krasnoye and are progressing into the populated area. Artillery is active in neighboring Chasov Yar and other enemy-occupied settlements.

Following the loss of Avdeevka, the enemy fell back to nearby villages, where the Russian Armed Forces attempted to swiftly enter. Currently, there are conflicts in Lastochkino: with reports suggesting that the Russian Armed Forces have also gained access to Severnoye.

In the Orekhovsky sector of the front, battles are raging in the center of Robotyne, as the Russian Armed Forces endeavor to dislodge the enemy from the village. There are also clashes for strongholds near Kopani and northwest of Verbovoy.

rybar

MAJOR RUSSIA CAPTURES at Donetsk, Kreminna and Zaporizhzhia Front – Ukraine Frontline Changes Report

Unbreakable Russian Momentum | Ukrainian Lines Struggle To Keep Up

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Battlefield Ukraine Russians Attack Along Entire Front

Another Massive Russian Success Achieved By The Russian Forces In Multiple Directions

Massive battles in Robotyne | Advances in 2 fronts [22 February 2024]

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (22 February 2024)

▫️ In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces supported by aviation inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of AFU 10th mountain assault, 14th mechanised brigades close to Petropavlovka (Kharkov).

In addition, three attacks of the AFU 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigade were repelled close to Sinkovka (Kharkov).

The enemy lost up to 30 servicemen, two APCs, and three motor vehicles.

In the course of the counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops hit one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, one U.S.-made M198 howitzer, one Giatsint and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems.

▫️ In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Force liberated Pobeda, improved the situation on the front line, and hit units of AFU 92nd assault, 79th air assault, 46th airmobile brigades close to Novomikhailovka and Krasnogorovka (DPR).

The enemy lost more than 410 servicemen, one tank, three AFVs, five motor vehicles, Polish-made Krab and Bogdana self-propelled artillery systems, one D-20 howitzer, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.

▫️In Avdeyevka direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions, and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of AFU 53rd mechanised, 3rd assault, 107th, 116th territorial defence brigades near Orlovka and Tonenkoye (DPR).

Nine attacks and counter-attacks of the enemy units were repelled close to Novgorodskoye, Leninskoye, Berdichi, Lastochkino, and Pervomayskoye (DPR).

The AFU lost up to 145 servicemen, five IFVs, two U.S.-made M113 APCs, 26 motor vehicles, and one U.S.-made M777 artillery system.

▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Force inflicted losses on units of AFU 58th mechanised infantry, 128th territorial defence brigades near Novodonetskoye and Staromayorskoye (DPR).

The enemy lost up to 155 servicemen, one tank, two APCs, one combat vehicle of Strela-10 SAM system, three motor vehicles, one Msta-B howitzer, one M-46 gun, and one electronic warfare system.

▫️In Kherson direction, the Dnepr Group of Forces’ units inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of AFU 28th mechanised, 35th marines, and 121st territorial defence brigades near Shcherbaki (Zaporozhye), Ivanovka and Mikhailovka (Kherson).

In addition, three enemy attacks were repelled close to Rabotino (Zaporozhye).

Up to 50 servicemen, two tanks, two AFVs, and seven motor vehicles were neutralised.

In the course of the counter-battery warfare, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one Msta-B howitzer, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system were repelled.

▫️ Operational-Tactical aviation, UAVs, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces wiped out a self-propelled launcher and a transport and loader vehicle of the U.S-made Patriot SAM system, as well as engaged manpower and hardware in 114 areas during the day.

Air defence units shot down one S-200 anti-aircraft missile converted to hit ground targets, 8 HIMARS MLRS projectiles, and one JDAM aerial guided bomb.

95 UAVs were destroyed near Chervonopopovka, Golikovo (LPR), Staromlynovka (DPR), Verbovoye, Novofyodorovka, Tokmak (Zaporozhye), and Novaya Mayachka (Kherson).

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of February 22

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Svatovo-Kremennoe direction

Fighting for Bogdanovka continues. The Russian army advanced to the north-eastern outskirts of Krasny , ours took control of several houses.

⚫️Donetsk direction

In the Avdeevsky sector, the Russian army advanced in the Lastochkino area and in Pervomaisky . There has been progress at the Maryinsky site in Georgievka.

⚫️Zaporozhye direction

In the Orekhovsky sector there were oncoming battles in the vicinity of Rabotino . At Verbovoy , our fighters knocked out the Ukrainian Armed Forces from some positions. No change on the Vremevsky ledge .

◼️The Armed Forces of Ukraine shelled Donetsk, firing 39 shells into the Kirov, Petrovsky and Kuibyshevsky districts. The impacts hit both residential courtyards and high-rise buildings. Three casualties are known in the Tekstilshchik microdistrict.

Front #Summary for 22 Feb 2024 by 20:01⚡️

🔹In #Kherson Direction, a new AFU strike hit the formations of our army, which were preparing to clean up #Krynki village. Strength to the families.

🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, there are intense battles for #Rabotino. It was not possible to take the village by surprise, the AFU is well equipped with Western equipment and motivated. However, our troops are methodically advancing, they pushed the AFU out of the “Shirokaya Beam”. Fighting is already underway in the centre of #Rabotino near the ruins of the school. At #Verbovoye, our troops knocked out the AFU from several positions, regained control over the “Krivoy Beam”.

🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, after our forces liberated #Pobeda, the AFU are throwing new forces in counterattacks. Our positions are being held. Plus, our troops moved north, towards #Georgiyevka. #Krasnogorovka also has significant progress. They occupied half of the shallowed reservoir and approached the Pervomayka quarter.

🔹In #Avdeyevka Direction, the front beyond the city continues to rumble. Our army is attacking in #Lastochkino, the AFU is slowly rolling back towards #Orlovka. Our aviation is hitting the #Lastochkino – #Tonenenkoye – #Severnoye section powerfully, it looks like preparing a new stage of the offensive. At #Severnoye, ours made several attempts to gain a foothold east of the village, but so far the AFU is holding the line. A little less than half of #Pervomayskoye is behind us, the rest is already grey zone.

🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our forces are expanding the control zone at the Popovsky and Ivanovsky forests. The eastern outskirts of #Ivanovskoye, without changes. Ours tried to break through the next line of AFU defence, but they fought back so far.

🔹In #Svatovo Direction, our forces are attacking again in the #Seversk sector. The frontline is unchanged there, the industrial zone is behind us (⚠️at #Belogorovka, I assume). In the #Liman sector, also without significant changes, ours are fixed in the “Lapteva Beam” (⚠️Yar Lapteva towards #Terny, I assume). On the #Kupyansk front, our aviation, artillery, and drones are working hard.
📌 The AFU are already, to put it mildly, worried about where exactly our army will decide to move the #Kupyansk front. However, the exact direction is still unclear, ours are trying to stretch the enemy’s forces along the entire frontline.

💥 In #Donetsk, two medical workers were injured from shelling. At night, a S-200 SAM (conversion) was shot down over the #Rostov region, converted by Ukraine to attack ground targets. A large drone was shot down over the #Bryansk region.

🎯 Our Geranium strikes on the airfield in #Mirgorod damaged two Su-24M aircraft and a MiG-29 fighter. Hopefully our strike on the launcher and the transport-loading vehicle of the Patriot SA will be visual confirmed.

olegtsarov

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/02/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_22.html