I think that the NIC forecast is underestimating the growth of China by 2030. I think China’s economy will be more than double the US GDP in 2030
I also think that there will be more technological impact over the next 18 years.
Factory mass produced skyscrapers and robotic cars will have a significant impact on the world economy. The factory mass produced skyscrapers could have about 30% of the world commercial construction market by 2020. Taller and vastly more affordable buildings will increase the productivity of cities and increase the rate of world urbanization.
I see the impact of Sky Cities and Broad Factory mass produced skyscrapers like the move from 3 to 4 story buildings to cities with 30 story buildings. Average skyscrapers are now 30 to 50 stories tall. This factory mass production will make 100 to 300 story buildings affordable and common.
Eight times the density would be a 45% boost to productivity.
Road capacity could be boosted by 4 times using robotic cars. This could be another 30% boost to productivity.
The Sky Cities are also designed to reduce pollution (99% less construction dust) and use 5 times less material than a regular skyscraper. They would also house homes, offices and stores which will enable more in building commuting. This will boost productivity and reduce commuting times.
NIC projects China’s economy to be just larger than or just smaller than the USA.
China moved up from 7.9% of the US economy to 55%
See more and subscribe to NextBigFuture at 2012-12-11 08:42:32
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