Recent data tell a somewhat different story to the one NASA want to put forward. The mean rate of change in September minima reduced to something akin to zero after 2007, maybe even a small (relative to the 1980 peak) rise.
‘Key Takeaway: Summer Arctic sea ice extent is shrinking by 12.6% per decade as a result of global warming’, says NASA.
But their own interactive ‘ANNUAL SEPTEMBER MINIMUM EXTENT’ graph (here) gives the game away. For example:
2007 minimum: 4.07 km. (lowest since 1979).
2021: 4.72 km.
2022: 4.67 km.
Only two of the last fifteen years (2012, 2020) were lower than 2007, the rest at least the same (2016) or upto 25% above.
Peak decline was from 1996-2007, about one solar cycle (SC 23). Those days seem to have gone, for now at least. The most recent decade did not show a decline anywhere near 12.6%, or even any net decline.
September minima for 2021 and 2022 were both noticeably higher than those of 2011 and 2012, for example.
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NASA: Arctic sea ice minimum ties for tenth lowest
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