Highly active hurricane season still predicted, but will La Niña arrive in time to play a part?

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Forecasters won’t want another embarrassment of relentlessly talking up the strength of the season, only for events to fall well short of what they expected. Much La Niña chat, but will one arrive before the season is over, or nearly over?
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Federal forecasters are still predicting a highly active Atlantic hurricane season thanks to near-record sea surface temperatures and the possibility of La Niña, officials said Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s updated hurricane outlook said atmospheric and oceanic conditions have set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season that could rank among the busiest on record.

“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement. [Talkshop comment – only briefly Cat-5, mostly not]

“NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.”

Not much has changed from predictions released in May [Talkshop comment – but not a lot has happened so far.]
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Factors that could influence this year’s forecast

The Atlantic ocean basin is expected to be remarkably active due to several factors:

Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
Reduced vertical wind shear.
Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.
An enhanced west African monsoon.

These conditions are expected to continue into the fall. Of note, the dry Saharan air that prevented tropical storm development during portions of the middle of the summer is expected to subside in August.

Full article here.
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