Why Arlen Specter is in trouble
Washington
There are three reasons why Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter is sinking in his Democratic Senate primary race against Rep. Joe Sestak: One, his age (80). Two, his status as an incumbent. And three, until just over a year ago, he was a Republican.
“That’s a very dangerous narrative to run on in this cycle,” says Ken Smukler, a Democratic strategist based in Philadelphia. “These are Democratic primary voters who have been conditioned over the years to vote against Arlen Specter, and I think folks tend to underestimate just how difficult that hurdle is to overcome for him.”
Of course, he’s also Arlen Specter, with a 30-year record of aggressively advocating for Pennsylvania in Washington, and no one predicts the defeat of this institution lightly. And no analysts rule out that he can recover and win the primary, not least if something damaging comes out on Congressman Sestak in this last week before the May 18 vote.
But the momentum is definitely with Sestak, a 58-year-old retired career Navy admiral. On Tuesday, the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call daily tracking poll showed Sestak up by 4 points, the fourth straight day showing Sestak ahead. A Rasmussen poll out Monday shows Sestak leading 47 percent to 42 percent.
Lead Vanished
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