Who Will Replace Retiring Virginia Senator Jim Webb?

Kaine has won twice statewide and certainly has greater name ID and larger fundraising networks than Perriello, but he has also expressed disinterest in the seat and appears to be content with his current job as head of the Democratic National Committee. While this could all change with one phone call from President Obama, initial indications and grassroots support among party activists are pointing heavily towards Tom Perriello as the choice of the more energetic, liberal-progressive wing of the party should Kaine officially decline to run. Granted it has been just two days since Webb’s announcement, but dueling Facebook pages for the pair are heavily favoring Perriello who has 660 fans to Tim Kaine‘s 248.

Although Perriello was defeated this past November by State Senator Robert Hurt, he lost by only 9,000 votes out of over 235,000 cast in a heavily conservative district during a Republican wave election. His unabashed support of Obama’s policies turned out his liberal base in droves and his willingness to talk to anyone and everyone, even Tea Party groups whose rhetoric had led to a gas line being cut at his brothers house, delivered him many more independent voters than any of is opponents perceived shortcomings. During the highly polarized health care debates, Perriello held more town halls in his district than any Democrat nationwide and earned the respect of many of his harshest critics. His energy on the campaign trail is almost tangible and his TV commercials, debate appearances, and town hall meetings portray him as a very down to earth, likable character with deeply held convictions about his political beliefs.

As a whole, the state is less conservative than Perriello’s district, especially when you take into account data from the latest census trends showing the majority of Virginia’s population growth in the Democratic stronghold of Northern Virginia. With Obama at the top of the ticket, Perriello could conceivably turn out huge margins in Northern Virginia, and if he does as well or nearly as well in Republican areas as he did in his own district, could win the seat handily, depending on who the Republicans to decide to nominate for both President and US Senate. Despite those two missing pieces, the fact remains Obama needs to turn out the same voters in Virginia as he did in 2008 to win re-election and Tom Perriello is undeniably is the candidate best suited to accomplish that.

Other names floated range from Norfolk Delegate Kenny Alexander and State Senator Donald McEachin to unsuccessful Lieutenant Governor candidates Jody Wagner and Mike Signer. There are Draft Rick Boucher, Gerry Connolly and Glenn Nye pages, and although Nye’s page is clearly a joke, it gives interesting insight into the mind of the rank and file Democratic activist. McEachin made an unsuccessful run for Attorney General in years past and while Boucher still has $2 million leftover from his surprise early retirement at the hands of Morgan Griffith, his lack of a dynamic personality combined with his relative lack of a statewide profile makes his candidacy highly unlikely. Should Kaine decide not to run and Perriello declines as well or faces a challenge from any of the above candidates, the election could be anyones game. Party leaders at both the state and national level are likely looking to have a bloodless nominating contest and will seek to anoint a candidate as quickly as possible.

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