NCAA: Sweet 16 Projections

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From: here

Ali Farokhmanesh is now a star.

So is Omar Samhan.

That’s the result of the wild, wacky and mostly unpredictable first four days of this NCAA tournament that started with an overtime game (BYU over Florida) and ended with an overtime game (Purdue over Texas A&M). In between, we saw the overall top seed (Kansas) lose, a 12 seed (Cornell) beat the brains out of two teams (Temple and Wisconsin) that spent much of the season ranked in the top 15, the nation’s most talented team (Kentucky) win a pair of games by an average of 29.5 points, and one of the stars of last March (Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds) miss 22 of the 26 shots he attempted.

But that’s all in the past.

Now it’s time to look ahead.

Here’s the Sweet 16 Look Ahead …

My bracket is OK, I guess: Seven of the teams I projected to make the Elite Eight are still alive, Kansas being the lone mistake. So though I incorrectly had Northern Iowa, Purdue, Cornell and Butler losing in the first round, I’m still on track to finish strong. And the team I picked to win it all (Kentucky) is now officially the favorite to win it all (at +175), according to Sportsbook.com.

And the other favorites are: Syracuse (+400), Duke (+500), West Virginia (+600), Kansas State (+600), and Ohio State (+800) trail Kentucky in terms of odds to win the championship. Sportsbook.com projects Cornell as the least likely (+7,500), one spot below Purdue (+6,000).

Three intriguing Sweet 16 games

1. Kentucky vs. Cornell

The contrast in coaches, players, styles and nearly everything else makes Kentucky-Cornell compelling on lots of levels. Can the Wildcats stop the Big Red from scoring even though Temple and Wisconsin could not? Will playing 58 miles from Cornell’s campus be tough for UK or will its massive fan base turn the Carrier Dome blue? Will Cornell players use the handshake line to convince John Wall, Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins to let them manage their millions next year?

2. Baylor vs. St. Mary’s

Omar Samhan doesn’t project favorably at the next level despite being a 6-foot-11 center who is averaging 30.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in this NCAA tournament. A perceived lack of athleticism is the reason. But if the St. Mary’s star somehow puts 30 and 10 on Baylor’s Ekpe Udoh — currently projected as a lottery pick — NBA scouts will be forced to re-evaluate Samhan, though some might be doing it already.

3. Syracuse vs. Butler

Notice a pattern here? What I love are the games featuring power-conference schools against programs that mostly operate with relatively small budgets and without the benefit of great television contracts. Syracuse-Butler offers exactly that. And though the Orange are favored (by seven points, to be exact), Butler was ranked 20 spots ahead of Syracuse in the preseason AP poll.

Sweet 16 facts

1. Five of the eight Sweet 16 games actually pit a school from a BCS-affiliated league against a school from a non-BCS affiliated league. In addition to the ones previously mentioned, there’s Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), and Kansas State (Big 12) vs. Xavier (Atlantic 10). The other three games are Ohio State (Big Ten) vs. Tennessee (SEC), West Virginia (Big East) vs. Washington (Pac-10), and Duke (ACC) vs. Purdue (Big Ten).

2. The ACC and Pac-10 are the only BCS-affiliated leagues without multiple Sweet 16 teams. The Big Ten has three. The Big 12, Big East and SEC each have two. The MVC, Horizon, A-10, Ivy and WCC are the other five leagues represented.

3. Nine Sweet 16 participants won their conference tournaments. Meantime, only two Sweet 16 teams (Tennessee and Washington) finished the regular season worse than second in their leagues, and nobody finished worse than third.

4. Three one seeds (Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke) and three two seeds (Kansas State, Ohio State, West Virginia) remain, but only one three seed (Baylor) and one four seed (Purdue). There are two fives (Michigan State, Butler), two sixes (Tennessee, Xavier), a nine (Northern Iowa), a 10 (St. Mary’s), an 11 (Washington), and a 12 (Cornell).

5. Nine Sweet 16 teams were actually ranked in the top 16 of the preseason AP poll. They were No. 2 Michigan State, No. 4 Kentucky, No. 7 Purdue, No. 8 West Virginia, No. 9 Duke, No. 10 Tennessee, No. 11 Butler, No. 14 Washington, and No. 16 Ohio State. Xavier, Syracuse, Kansas State and Northern Iowa were among those receiving votes. Cornell, St. Mary’s and Baylor received zero preseason AP votes.