The 14: Trading Out of a Nightmare

Welcome back to The 14, a series about the Baltimore Ravens’ 14th overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. After discussing trading into the top 10 for Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux or LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., I’d like to look at a smaller jump up in the first round as well as several trade-back options.

While trading up for Kayvon Thibodeaux or Derek Stingley Jr. would be seizing an opportunity to snag an elite prospect lower than they should be available, the Ravens also need to prepare for a nightmare draft board at the 14th pick.

It’s not only possible, but likely, that the first 10 picks include the draft’s top three edge rushers (Aidan Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, Travon Walker), top three offensive tackles (Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, Charles Cross) and top two cornerbacks (D Stingley Jr. and Ahmad Gardner), plus elite safety prospect Kyle Hamilton. Other candidates for the 14th overall pick like Jermaine Johnson, Jordan Davis and Drake London could all be off the board by the time the Ravens are on the clock.

While there are plenty of ‘stick-and-pick’ options – or a trade back, as I’ll discuss later – Baltimore’s treasure trove of 2022 draft picks gives them the flexibility to easily move up to picks 11 or 12 to secure the right player.

While I’m obviously a fan of taking Davis – a true alien – or London – my WR1 – at 14, only Johnson fits my trade-up criteria. He’s a Day 1 starter who offers elite upside at a premium position of need in Baltimore, especially with his potential as a pass rusher.

Johnson is not a one-of-a-kind athlete or physical specimen, but he has excellent speed, length and power, as well as a relentless motor and a high football I.Q. that help him put it all together.  That shows up as an elite edge-setter against the run and as an ascending edge rusher with a number of pass rush moves coming into the NFL. He has solid instincts and processing and demonstrates an impressive understanding of how to use his tools to beat blocks and finish plays, something that I think will translate extremely well to the NFL. Johnson also fits Baltimore’s scheme and plays like a Raven on tape, two additional considerations for a trade-up candidate.

In a weaker edge class, I think Johnson would be a surefire top-10 pick, but he’s just the fourth-ranked edge defender in this year’s draft. His Expected Draft Position (EDP) from Grinding the Mocks is 11.9 and he’s 12th on NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board. ESPN gives him a better-than 60% chance of being available at the 11th or 12th overall pick, but less than half that at the 14th.

If the top 10 goes as I expect, the Ravens may want to explore trading up for Johnson at the 11th or 12th pick to make sure they secure an elite first-round talent at a position of need instead of risking a nightmare board at 14. While the Ravens have espoused a best-player-available strategy in the draft, that typically hasn’t applied to the first round in recent years. Baltimore filled major needs with the first-round selections of Hollywood Brown, Patrick Queen, Rashod Bateman and Odafe Oweh in the past three drafts, so prioritizing a need at edge isn’t out of the question.

That would require a trade with either the Washington Commanders or the Minnesota Vikings, two NFC teams who might be willing to deal. Let’s take a look at some potential trades.

Commanders, 11th Overall Pick

The Commanders only have six picks in the 2022 draft, with gaps of 66 and 76 selections between their second-rounder (47th overall), fourth-rounder (113rd overall) and sixth-rounder (189th overall). Adding either a third-rounder or two top-150 picks might be attractive, in which case any of the above deals would work.

It should be even easier for the Ravens to trade up to the Vikings’ first-round pick.

Vikings, 12th Overall Pick

The Vikings may not be especially incentivized to trade back, but they don’t have any picks between 77 and 156. Moving back two spots to add another fourth-rounder might be worth it if their preferred target is expected to be available at 14 or later.

These deals all make sense, but I’d only pull the trigger if the top 10 goes as I expect with the Ravens hurtling towards that nightmare board at 14.

But Vegas betting markets have the line for Johnson’s pick number at 9.5, so it’s possible that he could go in the top 10 and not be available at 11 or 12. It’s also possible that Stingley Jr. – who has a Vegas line of 11.5 – is available at picks 11 or 12, in which case I would certainly execute any of these deals for him as well.

The Ravens may want to lean into that uncertainty and gamble that one of their top prospects will be there at 14; after all, Bateman fell all the way to 27 last year. But in that case, they also need to be prepared to trade back from 14 to maximize the pick’s value.

Trading Back From the Nightmare

By the time the 14th pick rolls around, the Ravens may not have a chance to snag any of the 13 players I’ve mentioned thus far, leaving them with a few options who may not quite have top-15 value.

I wouldn’t complain about taking the best cornerback available in either Trent McDuffie or Andrew Booth Jr., or snagging the draft’s best linebacker in Devin Lloyd, but even one of those three could go before the Ravens are on the clock as well.

At that point, I would be actively seeking a trade-back, something that aligns with Baltimore’s overall draft strategy.

Ravens GM Eric DeCosta talking to former Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff on FA, comp picks and draft philosophy.

We get a great mention of what DeCosta learned from the seminal “Loser’s Curse” paper from @bcmassey & @R_Thaler pic.twitter.com/Kzl1W0fitr

— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) April 14, 2022

The aforementioned “Loser’s Curse” is a groundbreaking study of the NFL Draft by esteemed economists Richard Thaler and Cade Massey that I highly recommend for any draft nerds, but I won’t bore you with the details here. Essentially, higher draft picks are overvalued relative to the value of having multiple draft picks with the same overall value because of the uncertainty in prospect evaluation. More picks means more chances at hitting on a player, even if those picks are in later rounds.

Keep in mind, this still requires that teams attempt to maximize value when trading back to acquire more picks; the total JJ value of picks received must be comparable to the total value trade given. As a result, I’ll still seek to have all of my potential trades within 10 units of JJ Value, the equivalent of a mid-seventh-round pick. That value can be resolved with a variety of pick swaps or sweeteners, but I’d also be willing to sacrifice that value for the opportunity offered by these trades.

The Ravens have been open about their desire to capitalize on the quality and depth of the 2022 draft class with the number of players who gained an extra year of NCAA playing experience due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Adding more picks, especially in the top 100, could help the Ravens stock up on cheap starting talent as salary cap hits for their best players skyrocket in future years.

Playing Matchmaker at 14

There’s no obvious suitor for the 14th overall pick, but I think there could be a number of options depending on how the board falls.

The nightmare scenario would mean just one wide receiver and no quarterbacks go in the first 13 picks, so a team could spark a run on either position by trading up to 14. Plenty of mock drafts project Charles Cross or Kyle Hamilton to be available at 14; while both would be excellent picks for the Ravens, someone may be willing to offer a premium return to swoop in on either elite prospect, or another of their preferred players.

There are four different types of trade-back deals the Ravens could pursue, with two potential trade partners for each deal that could yield an interesting variety of players. I’ll use a mix of sources, plus a little imagination, to project a potential sample return from each trade.

Let’s go in order of how far back the Ravens would go with each trade, starting with a few that would keep Baltimore picking in the teens by trading with the Philadelphia Eagles or the New Orleans Saints, both of whom have two picks between 15 and 20.

This is the simplest strategy: trading back a few picks to add more capital later in the draft. It would allow the Ravens to pursue more bites at the 2022 draft apple while still landing a top-20 player who fits quite well in Baltimore.

Next up is another standard framework: trading back about 10 picks to add a second-rounder. The Arizona Cardinals and the Dallas Cowboys would be the neatest for that, though a few blockbusters with the Buffalo Bills would work too.

While the perfect need/fit player may not be there in the mid-20s, the Ravens could still grab a high-upside contributor and have more flexibility to go after needs/fits on Day 2.

The next idea would be an even bigger blockbuster: trading back from 14 to net two picks in the 20s. Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers have two first-rounders after the Ravens and heavily need wide receiving talent, so they could be options here. Let’s take a look.

The Ravens would leave this trade with two first-round picks – plus those valuable fifth-year options – without having to give up their second-rounder. Either of these duos (or the several other potential combos) would be amazing Day 1 hauls for the Ravens.

Finally, the Ravens could trade back for two picks in the 30s, with the Detroit Lions and the New York Jets as potential partners in such a deal.

I would love the idea of grabbing Ojabo with the last pick in the first-round to secure the fifth-year option on his rookie deal, and overall I like the depth of this draft class between picks 30 and 45 to stock up on picks in that range.

All of these trade options fit within the general parameters offered by the JJ Value chart, so they would be an alternate way for the Ravens to maximize the value of having the 14th overall pick. These deals become even more attractive when considering a potential nightmare board at 14, where the Ravens would have to reach for a player who may not be worth a top-15 pick.

These circumstances would support a trade-back in pretty much any draft year, but the quality of the depth of this class means that the Ravens can find impact starters throughout the second and third rounds. Loading up on extra picks just gives them a better chance at hitting on more of their prospects to surround Lamar Jackson with as much cheap starting talent as possible as the Ravens enter a new stage of their Super Bowl window.

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