OTL: Predicting The Future

During the 2018 NFL Draft, the Ravens, like a lioness in the Serengeti, laid low, quietly stalking their intended prey. When the first-round unfolded as they hoped and the Patriots selected Sony Michel as the draft’s 31st overall pick, then Assistant GM Eric DeCosta, emerged from the high grass to make his move. From the jump, the plan worked like magic.

DeCosta made a deal with Eagles GM Howie Roseman to acquire the 32nd overall pick, the last in Round 1. When Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome turned in the card, Lamar Jackson became a Raven. Five years later, many are wondering if the magic will continue – if Lamar will remain a Raven.

Last week I compared the contract standoff to a hostage situation with no end in sight. Since that time, ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith has shared that Lamar’s camp reached out to him to inform the worldwide leader’s blathering bobblehead, that Lamar has never insisted upon a fully guaranteed deal.

Like the NFLPA is using Lamar as a pawn, so too is Lamar using Stephen A.

Update: The NFLPA is advising #Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to stand his ground in negotiations.

The quarterback market “was reset” when the #Browns gave Deshaun Watson the fully guaranteed contract, per @diannaESPN

“He’s being told not to move off that.”https://t.co/qTombGwQU4 pic.twitter.com/xE3wP3UF5H

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) March 1, 2023

Without question, Lamar is a domino and the team’s immediate future is contingent upon which way the tile falls. If the NFLPA is successful in their attempts to influence Lamar to the point that he doesn’t budge, he’ll play under the tag, most likely the exclusive tag. Not only will that limit what the team can do in free agency, it will cost the team a few players who have contributed to the team’s success. The most likely casualties, either by trade or release are Devin Duvernay, Gus Edwards, Chuck Clark and Calais Campbell.

Duvernay seemingly fades down the stretch each season. Maybe they save him at a reduced rate (he’s scheduled to weigh $4.529M on the cap) but given his lack of production, reputation for being an average at best route runner and his eroding skills as a return specialist, it might take a magic wand to save him ($4.308M cap savings). Edwards is a nice change-of-pace, north-south back who can move the chains but at $5.634M, he’s expendable and represents a cap savings of $4.384M. Clark, allegedly distraught following the team’s final game of the 2022 season, knows the handwriting is on the wall ($3.64M cap savings). Maybe the Ravens can swing a trade for all or any of the three. Maybe they are simply street free agents, all departing to create space to fit Lamar into the cap.

Campbell let it be known during Super Bowl coverage on NFL Network that he planned to return for one more season. Most assumed that his swan song campaign would be as a member of the Ravens. I’m not so sure. The Ravens quickly re-signed Brent Urban. They have other interior defensive linemen in the mix such as promising second-year player, Travis Jones, Michael Pierce, Justin Madubuike and Broderick Washington. Granted, none of are the ilk of Campbell, even at his relatively advanced age, but those 550 snaps (32 per game) measured against the cap savings ($7M) for a cap-strapped team are difficult to justify.

Did He Really Say That?

During his presser at The NFL Combines, John Harbaugh was asked if he watched Georgia’s tape to get a feel for new offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s style of offense. John’s response:

“We watched a little bit of it. It was more in the context of him [offensive coordinator Todd Monken] expressing his vision for our offense going forward, so we watched some of their tape doing it. I didn’t sit down and breakdown Georgia tape; I didn’t have time. It would have been nice, probably, but I didn’t feel like we needed to.”

While I believe that the Ravens ultimately got the right guy, this sounds a bit like a blind date, but fortunately one that contained a little magic.

To Have & Have Not

The best organizations always have contingency plans and in 2023, no contingency plan is more important to the Ravens than a Plan B when it comes to the position of quarterback. Questions were presented to both Harbaugh and Eric DeCosta yesterday in Indianapolis, focusing on the sobering thought of life without Lamar – a thought that apparently hasn’t penetrated the cerebral cortex of the team’s skipper.

“Not very much. As little as possible, for sure. Our plans are for Lamar [Jackson]. One of the things we did – and I think some of it was written about – when we went through a process with the offensive coordinator position. We interviewed 14 candidates; we had 21 different interviews. They were extensive interviews on Zoom and in-person, and of course, that comes up, because we’re talking about how we’re going to build an offense, and all those interviews were based on Lamar being the quarterback. ‘If Lamar’s the quarterback, how are we going to build the offense?’ So, that’s the direction that we’re planning for.” ~ John Harbaugh

Conversely, DeCosta shared this:

“We’re always preparing for every contingency. We look at every situation – free agency, the Draft – any possible situation that might arise with players. In this business, you get surprised daily, and so, you have to be prepared for any situation.”

Transparency

The subject of wide receiver was brought up during DeCosta’s presser. It seems like an annual rite of passage for the club given their Groundhog Day-like quest to find that seemingly unattainable No. 1 WR. EDC’s response was both interesting and telling all at the same time.

“It’s a challenging position to evaluate in different ways. If I had an answer, that means I would probably have some better receivers, I guess. We keep trying. I think there are a lot of things that go along with that position. Sometimes it is tied to the quarterback, and I think it’s tied to things like durability; it’s tied to a lot of things. We’re going to keep swinging. There have been some guys that have been successful players for us that were draft picks. We’ve never really hit on that All-Pro type of guy, which is disappointing, I would say, but it’s not for lack of effort. We believe in what we do; we believe in our scouting; we believe in the system that we have – the scouting system that we have. It’s one of those anomalies that I really can’t explain, other than to say we’re not going to stop trying. We’re going to keep trying. I think we’ve drafted – I don’t know; [senior vice president of communications] Chad [Steele] would probably know – probably, at least five or six receivers in the last four years, maybe. We’re going to just keep swinging, and hopefully, at one of these points, we’ll hit the ball out of the park.”

Training Staff

The Ravens have long been viewed as an outstanding organization – from top to bottom, and considered to be among the league’s best. But a revealing survey conducted by the NFLPA of its constituents tells a surprisingly different story.

1,300 NFL players provided information to share with one another about their current club, to not only help them make important career decisions, but also help raise standards across the league. Full list at the link.https://t.co/IbbjTzFT8E pic.twitter.com/LDF6uKUswr

— Tony Lombardi (@RSRLombardi) March 1, 2023

Here are the Ravens grades according to the NFLPA. This survey was orchestrated by the players #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/vb7qd6q2Zg

— Cordell Woodland (@CordellWoodland) March 1, 2023

• 27 teams received a grade of A- or better
• 16 teams received a grade of A or better
• Of the 5 teams not receiving an A- or better, one received a B, two received a B+ and a fourth received a D-.

Former strength and conditioning coach Steve Saunders had previously been described to me as “John’s blind spot”. Given the intense criticism from former players, the most vocal of which have been Matthew Judon and Derek Wolfe, it’s surprising that Saunders lasted as long as he did. Perhaps, knowing the results of the survey was forthcoming, Harbaugh finally came around to the obvious move and let Saunders go.

Oh, Domino

So as we count down the days to March 7, the day by which the Ravens have to declare their use of the franchise tag as it relates to Lamar, Bookies.com has come up with odds on where Lamar will land for the 2023 season.

Lamar’s most likely destination per https://t.co/emMgk9luI1. Might have to plunk some on Charm City! pic.twitter.com/3lEeP4RLc4

— Tony Lombardi (@RSRLombardi) March 1, 2023

I suspect that the Ravens have done their due diligence on Lamar’s trade value. DeCosta, given his relationships with GM’s around the league, has probably polled his colleagues and inquired about Jackson’s trade value and his market value in terms of a new contract. That’s all part of his contingency plan. Admittedly some liar’s poker might be in play with said inquiries.

When all is said and done, look for Lamar to be a Raven in 2023, playing under the exclusive franchise tag. For the benefit of the team, I hope I’m wrong. But from the things I’ve been hearing, the NFLPA has their hooks in Jackson. They have an agenda as do the Ravens, and unfortunately the agendas go together like oil and water. The Ravens appear willing to make fair concessions while Lamar’s camp seems unwavering in their position.

As DeCosta said nearly a month ago, “it takes two to tango”.

The Ravens are still waiting for their dance partner to arrive.

Will he show?

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