The Monken/Schwartz Chess Match & More

RSR’s Dev Panchwagh and Nikhil Mehta are tag-teaming Battle Plans in 2023.

Defense Go Big in Red Zone

By both conventional and advanced metrics, the Browns offense has been one of the worst in the NFL this year. They average just 4.6 yards per play, tied for third-lowest with the Jets, and they have the sixth-lowest EPA/play (-0.13) and the second-worst success rate (38.7%).

However, Cleveland sits in the top half of the NFL in scoring offense, largely due to their effectiveness in the red zone. Their 22 red zone trips are the seventh-fewest in the league, but they found the end zone on 14 of those opportunities, a 63.6% conversion rate that ranks seventh (just behind the Ravens at 65.0%).

Their success in the red zone comes on the ground, sustaining a league-leading 0.42 EPA/rush even after Nick Chubb went down. But how do they do it? Deshaun Watson is mobile, but he’s not a rushing threat, and neither Kareem Hunt (sixth-lowest 3.3 yards per carry) nor Jerome Ford (fourth-worst EPA/rush, league-low 20.4% TFL rate) have been especially dangerous as ball carriers this season.

Instead, Cleveland will send out multiple tight ends and/or an extra offensive lineman to bully their way into the end zone. They’re especially effective with two tight ends and an extra OL, with a 1.16 EPA/rush on those plays.

The Ravens are typically averse to match opposing heavy personnel, opting to rely on their defensive line and linebackers to stuff the run with light boxes. But against Cleveland’s bottom-10 red zone passing offense (-0.19 EPA/pass), Mike Macdonald should trust his secondary to control the RZ airspace and commit more resources to his defensive front.

That can include some of the five-man fronts and 4-3 looks that Macdonald has occasionally deployed over the last two seasons, with Michael Pierce and Travis Jones sharing the field to plug up the middle. Tavius Robinson and Malik Harrison can also come on the field instead of a fifth defensive back to set the edge, and Kyle Hamilton should be in the box or around the line of scrimmage to take advantage of his run defense, as well.

One extra non-red zone note on Ford: 31 of his 107 rushes (28.9%!) this season have been at the left edge, and despite the obvious tendency, he’s been efficient doing so. He’s averaging 4.7 yards per attempt with five of his nine explosive rushes and seven of his 14 rushing first downs coming at the left edge. This isn’t consistent across Cleveland’s rushing offense – Hunt’s rush disbursement is much more varied – but instead a clear play call tendency when Ford is on the field.

Hangin’ with Mr. Cooper

In no time at all, wide receiver Amari Cooper and Watson have formed a connection. Cooper comes into this game with already double the amount of yards of the next best target in the offense, David Njoku. And with Watson’s preference to throw downfield, Cooper also has the seventh highest aDOT (15.3) in the league. Add that all up and you have a quarterback who can’t get enough of Mr. Cooper, and will force feed him the ball.

For defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, this is one of those classic Bill Belichick defensive strategies – take their best weapon out completely and make the others beat you. Macdonald, in many ways, seems to have adopted Belichick’s style and philosophy of creating a different defensive game plan each week for that specific opponent. What Belichick would do is typically double team or play high/low coverage against the top downfield target (let’s say a Tyreek Hill) and use his best cover man to check the second best threat, usually the chain mover.

In this case, that second best threat really isn’t present with Cleveland. Will Marlon Humphrey shadow Cooper? Or will they make sure they are playing bracket coverage against him? With Macdonald, there are no clear coverage tendencies. Last week against a star-studded receiver group, he was comfortable with either corner checking Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.

The best formula against Watson could very well be to keep him guessing on coverages and approaches against Cooper throughout the game. But no matter what, Cooper needs to be kept in check.

Head Games with the Browns’ Tackles

With the recent injury to Jedrick Wills Jr., and Jack Conklin already being out for the season, Cleveland was already down both of their starting offensive tackles for this game. In the case of Conklin, rookie Dawand Jones has actually filled in really well and looks like an emerging talent in this league. Jones has been ruled out for the game.

This is a clear avenue of attack for Macdonald and his staff. Overload pressures on the edges and simulated overload pressures are the weapon of choice to overwhelm the backup Cleveland tackles. In these instances, establishing a numbers advantage to force the Browns to potentially slide the protection to one side of the line to handle an overload, while actually bringing the blitz from the other side, is something we’ve seen Macdonald do effectively.

Another element to sending edge pressure is from the slot and the corners. Slot corner Arthur Maulet has been a devastating force as a blitzer, and with the way he disguises and times his blitz through the gap, it is hard for offensive linemen to get a bead on when he’s coming. The same can be said about Hamilton. Outside corners Humphrey and Brandon Stephens haven’t been deployed as blitzers much at all but they are also plenty capable.

If the Browns choose to keep extra blockers in to help the tackles, that will naturally open up the inside rush possibilities as well. Keeping extra blockers in to help the tackles could also severely limit Watson’s options in the passing game, which is exactly what Macdonald would want, as the quarterback has a history of holding the ball too long at times to let something develop.

Offense Wide Spread from Under Center Out of 11

We banged the drum on running the ball from 11 personnel, and sure enough, offensive coordinator Todd Monken obliged in a big way. Most of the damage that Ravens inflicted against Seattle in the run game came from 11. As we discussed, the opportunity was there to exploit and Monken learned from the Arizona game, which is a nod to his adaptability. Not only does Baltimore’s 0.18 EPA/rush out of 11 trail only the Miami Dolphins, but it also is the Ravens’ highest EPA/rush from any of their personnel groupings.

The natural progression seems to be integrating the passing game with the running game from 11, specifically from under center looks. Moreover, there is a chance to expand the RPO terrain from these looks too, with a wide spread approach, going from sideline to sideline. In fact, Monken showed a ton of wide spread last week against the Seahawks to create more space for his playmakers to exploit the defense in space.

That can be especially effective against a Browns defense that is ninth-worst against singleback runs (-0.09 EPA/rush) and best in the league against shotgun runs (-0.23 EPA/rush).

Jim Schwartz uses the threat of his pass rush to force teams into shotgun – they face the second-most shotgun in the NFL at 68.5% – where it’s harder to run the ball. Monken should answer by running the ball from under center to curb the aggression of the Browns defense.

Keaton Mitchell and Gus Edwards – or the Wheels and the Bus, if you like – were devastating on under center runs against Seattle, gashing them for chunk gains and setting the tone for the game. Coming out and hitting the Browns in the mouth would be a perfect way to throw Schwartz off his game and get Cleveland’s defense on the back foot, where they’ve rarely been this season.

Isolate the LBs in Coverage

The Browns have been simply incredible against opposing passing offenses this year, with a -0.34 EPA/pass that leads the league by a sizable margin. Much of that success comes from getting to opposing quarterbacks with a 27.8% pressure rate that ranks third in the league.

That helps disguise the weakness in their passing defense: their linebackers. Starting WILL Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (JOK) has allowed a 112.2 passer rating when targeted on 143 coverage snaps, allowing completions on 15 of his 16 targets. Starting MIKE Anthony Walker has been even worse, with a 140.1 passer rating when targeted on 164 coverage snaps.

The Ravens should split Mark Andrews out into the slot and use RBs out of the backfield to draw favorable coverage matchups against Cleveland’s linebackers. They can do this out of 21 personnel to keep Patrick Ricard in as an extra blocker to protect against the Browns’ deadly pass rush.

Andrews can then work the middle of the field, where he can use his size, strength and preternatural connection with his QB to serve as a safety blanket when Jackson is pressured.

Monken can also use Mitchell as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, with angle routes and wheels that get the linebackers out in space where the rookie RB’s athleticism can shine. Motioning Mitchell out of the backfield, especially using motion that has him already running at the snap, will force the Browns to communicate and potentially lead to explosive blitz-beaters if Mitchell isn’t accounted for.

Getting the Browns linebackers worried about pass coverage will also aid the Ravens’ ground game, too. JOK has been especially good against the run – his -0.8-yard average depth of tackle leads all NFL defenders with multiple tackles – so keeping him guessing will make it harder for him to penetrate Baltimore’s backfield for TFLs.

Some of the RPOs and triple options that the Ravens hit against the Lions can also put the linebackers in a bind while still keeping Baltimore’s ground game in the mix.

Winning Against Man Coverage

It truly is an interesting contrast in styles and fights when it comes to these two teams and how they approach defense especially. While Macdonald wants to keep the quarterback and entire offense guessing, at times, Schwartz is just looking to overwhelm, a la how Don “Wink” Martindale operated when he was the DC in Baltimore. Schwartz has been able to get away with it because his personnel is just that good. He blitzes a ton and his corners play man-to-man coverage. In the case of corner Greg Newsome, whose status is questionable for this game, he leads the league in man coverage, playing it on over 50% of his snaps.

Monken had a sound game plan and approach against the Browns in the first matchup. He was able to dial up some overs and underneath crossers for tight end Mark Andrews over the middle of the field. Frankly, Jackson was masterful at getting rid of the ball quickly to hit those patterns, and at other times, he bought time with his feet to give his receivers a chance to break loose.

There is no doubt Schwartz has adjusted his approach in this matchup, but the man coverage aspect will likely remain. Monken needs to dial up an assortment of man coverage beaters. His best bet is to use mesh concepts (when receivers are running intersecting patterns at a certain depth to create conflict for the trailing defensive backs) across the field. The rub route combination we saw last week between Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman, where OBJ got loose on a quick hitter up the right sideline, is another wrinkle that could really work well in this game.

Beyond the receivers and Andrews, this is going to be another game in which Jackson also has to find his underneath outlets, whether that is Justice Hill or Gus Edwards or even Mitchell, as we discussed previously. There will be opportunities to exploit the perimeter and get to the second level, especially if Cleveland isn’t tackling well in space. 

One on One Matchup: Myles Garrett vs. Ronnie Stanley

Ronnie Stanley was out for the Ravens’ first matchup with the Browns this year, so Monken threw the kitchen sink at Myles Garrett – double-teams, chips from WRs and tons of motion – to great success.

Now that Stanley’s back, he’ll be tasked with slowing down Garrett – who’s tied for second with 9.5 sacks and leads the NFL with a 26.2% pass rush win rate – without as much help. Stanley gave up two quick pressures to Seahawks edge-rusher Boye Mafe last week, one of which resulted in a fumble.

That’s a specialty of Garrett, who combines lethal pass-rush moves with clinical finishing. Stanley can’t afford to lose to Garrett right off the snap, because he is one of the few players that can track Jackson down behind the line of scrimmage.

Even though Stanley won’t get as much help as Patrick Mekari did in Week 4, Monken should still draw from some of that game plan to give Stanley some easier reps against Garrett throughout the game so the onus doesn’t fall entirely on the former All-Pro.

All advanced stats via Sumer Sports and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.

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