War & Supply Chain Issues Leading To High Prices & Famine

I remember famine being a thing in Africa in the ’80s. It was a thing in North Korea in the ’90s. But it’s been a while since we’ve seen super-skinny children and very sad mothers across the news.

We’re about to see those types of images again…

For 2 years, we’ve had shortages and supply chain issues from various nations opening and closing over and over due to the pandemic. Workers couldn’t work, but people got money to buy, and so demand was up while supply was down. That already sent prices way up– and all over the globe, not just in the United States!

Then came a war between 2 of the largest grain producers on the planet– and it’s bad.

link: graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/FOOD/zjvqkgomjvx/

As bad as the inflationary prices are for Western countries, it’s far worse in developing countries or “emerging markets” nations. (What we used to call “3rd World”– but that’s insulting now I guess? Like changing the label changes the reality?) Those that rely heavily on food imports are reeling.

Knowing that shortages were coming, many nations that normally sell some of their food to other countries have been keeping it all for themselves to forestall inflation and food scarcity in their own countries. An example being India refusing to ship their grain overseas. They’ve had a terrible growth year between floods and heat, and so there’s not enough extra to even sell to other countries to begin with…

The war has also blocked a lot of shipping that happens across the Black Sea, regardless of whether it comes from Ukraine or not. Grain from all of Europe used to be shipped out by Ukrainian ports, and now they have to go around, which further drives up prices, especially as fuel costs skyrocket.

In early May, nearly one fifth of all shipping container ships were held up in ports, waiting to be emptied. I’ve noticed that our own container ships are down to one or less held up by the Port of Seattle– but it turns out that’s because much of China’s workforce was on lockdown for another round of Covid. I expect once they open up again, we’ll see major backups once more. A LOT of China’s goods come through Seattle or Los Angeles, so what I see going on here with my own eyes just confirms what I read about.

Yet ANOTHER crisis in the food production world is sky-high fertilizer prices. Russia exports a LOT of it, and also much of fertilizer is made from fossil fuel products. As those prices go up, so too does fertilizer. Many smaller countries are trying their best to grow using manure, but that natural fertilizer is less powerful and takes more time to lay out on a crop area. And– there is less of THAT as well as people keep looking for alternatives.

Those most at risk for famine are in Africa and the Middle East, and isolated places who already have all kinds of issues like North Korea and Haiti.