Coronavirus Is Already Impacting Global Supply Chains, It Could Get MUCH WORSE
The coronavirus outbreak has already impacted the global supply chain and sent shock waves through the stock markets. But as the spread of the new coronavirus in China continues and causes even more factory shutdowns, the effect on global industrial supply chains could linger for years after it worsens.
Chinese industrial production in January and February is more than 20% lower relative to the average of the other 10 months of the year, a consistent pattern over the past decade. Some of this coincides with the Chinese New Year, which already has businesses around the globe scrambling. And things could get worse as workers get sick and factories shut down. Even manufactured items with a very marginal quantity of Chinese content will be affected as production is halted, and the increasing complexity of products means replacing specialized manufacturers is difficult, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
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Evidence from previous unexpected supply shocks is discouraging. General Motors shuttered U.S. and European plants after earthquakes in Japan in 2011 and again in 2016 because vital parts that couldn’t be easily found outside Japan suddenly became unavailable. Floods in Thailand in 2011 forced long-lasting changes to supply chains, even after immediate effects had dissipated.- The Wall Street Journal
With face masks already selling out, and very few even left that will protect the user in any capacity, this manufacturing shock could present a problem. Moldex-Metric Large N100 Disposable Particulate Respirator with Ventex Exhalation Valve is still in stock. But a quick online search is not resulting in much else. The 3M N100 Particulate Respirator (left) is also still available, but it looks like prices on it continue to climb as the finite economic law of supply and demand take hold.
The International Monetary Fund has drawn attention to this particularly steep impact of so-called risky imports. These are items such as complex machine and vehicle parts, hard drives, and certain electrical items that are particularly vulnerable to supply shocks. For every 1% increase in such risky imports from a country that suffers a natural disaster, there is a 0.7% fall in the importer’s exports during the same year.
And most just anticipate this problem to get worse as the global supply chain becomes impacted even more. Additionally, the ramifications of this outbreak could be felt for years. Couple this with the fact that manufacturing is still in recession and we could have a major problem on our hands.
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This article has been contributed by SHTF Plan. Visit www.SHTFplan.com for alternative news, commentary and preparedness info.
Source: https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/coronavirus-is-already-impacting-global-supply-chains-it-could-get-much-worse_02032020
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And it might not get worse too (bigger possibility of that).
All Hype & Balloney – Heres some 2nd Feb >>> FACTS – From The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get?
Here Are 6 Key Factors
By Knvul Sheikh, Derek Watkins, Jin Wu and Mika GröndahlUpdated >>>> Feb. 1, 2020
As the coronavirus outbreak continues to spread across China, a flurry of early research is drawing
>>>> a clearer picture of how the pathogen behaves
1. How contagious is the virus?
It seems …..moderately infectious,…. similar to SARS. (YAWN)
2. How deadly is the virus?
It’s hard to know yet. But the fatality rate is probably …..less than 3 percent, >>> much less than SARS. (YAWN)
3. How long does it take to show symptoms?
Possibly between 2 to 14 days, allowing the illness to go undetected.
4. How much have infected people traveled?
The virus spread quickly because it started in a transportation hub.
5. How effective will the response be?
The W.H.O. has praised China’s efforts, but critics fear lockdown measures may not be enough.
6. How long will it take to develop a vaccine?
A vaccine is still a year away — at minimum.
While the virus is a serious public health concern,…… the risk to most people outside China …..remains very low,(YAWN)
…….and seasonal flu is a more immediate threat. (DOUBLE YAWN)
How contagious is the virus?
It seems ….. moderately infectious, … similar to SARS. (YAWN)
The scale of an outbreak depends on how quickly and easily a virus is transmitted from person to person. While research has just begun, scientists have estimated that each person with the new coronavirus could infect somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 people without effective containment measures.
That would make the virus roughly as contagious as SARS, …….another coronavirus that circulated in China in 2003
and was contained after
it sickened >>>> JUST 8,098 people and >>>>> killed (ONLY) 774. (REALLY BIG YAWN)
If each person infected with the new coronavirus infects two to three others, that ……may be enough to sustain… an outbreak (YAWN)
How deadly is the virus?
It’s hard to know yet. But the fatality rate is
probably less than 3 percent, >>>> much less than SARS.
“There’s still a lot of uncertainty about what this virus is like and what it is doing,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, an infectious disease specialist at Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto, who was at the frontlines of the Canadian response to SARS.
Early indications suggest the fatality rate for this virus is >>>> considerably less >>>>>than another coronavirus, MERS, which kills about…….. one in three people …..who become infected,
and SARS, which kills …….. about one in 10.
All of the diseases appear to latch on to proteins on the surface of lung cells,
- but MERS and SARS ……seem to be more destructive to lung tissue.
(ABOVE KILLED 1 In 3 & 1 in 10 !!!)
HERE COME DE REALLY BIG BIG YAWNS
As of Jan. 31, fewer than >>>>> 1 in 40
>>>> of the people with confirmed infections had died.
AND >>> Many of those who died were….. older men….. with underlying health problems.