Podcast 287 COVID-19 Understanding What’s Going On

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Today:  Covid-19 is everywhere!  It’s going to get you!  Or is it?  What’s the numbers look like and will it happen to you?  What the heck is flattening the curve?  How will that help me?  Who is WHO?

All that and more on this Podcast.

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Terms:

• Case fatality rate (CFR) – An estimate of the risk of mortality from a contagious disease. The CFR is calculated by dividing the number of deaths caused by a disease by the number of cases of that disease in a given time period. The CFR is time and location-dependent, and many different factors can influence the CFR, such as speed of diagnosis of cases, health system capacity, age and other demographic characteristics, among others. For COVID-19, estimates of the CFR have varied; in China, CFR estimates by province have ranged from <1% to 5.8%. Sources: CDC/Lipsitch et. al./WHO
• Community Transmission/Spread – Infections identified in a given geographic area without a history of travel elsewhere and no connection to a known case.
• Droplet Transmission/Spread – A mode of transmission for a contagious disease that involves relatively large, short-range (less than 6 feet) respiratory droplets produced by sneezing, coughing, or talking. Source: CDC
• Who is WHO (World Health Organization)
• Epidemic – An increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in the population in that area.  Source: CDC
• Pandemic – An epidemic that has spread over several countries/continents, usually affecting a large number of people. Source: CDC
• Morbidity Rate – People sick from a disease
• Mortality Rate – People died from a disease

CDC Report

• March 18 on US Cases Feb 3 – March 16
• This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years.
• 170,000 Word Wide and 7,000 deaths in 150 countries
• In China only 1 child was reported as killed by the virus
• As of 3/16, 4,226 cases.  No kids in ICU or killed in US
• Cases with known outcomes:  44 Cases (Deaths)
  • 15 deaths 34% >85
  • 10 Deaths 46% 65-84
  • 9 Deaths 20% 20-64 
  • Death Rate during that period in the US is 44/4226 
  • 1.04% in the US
• New Case Rate can’t double for ever! CDC estimates it should go on at about 500 per day in the US

Looking at Reports together:

CDC was wrong, new cases in the US in the last 8 days were about 4740 per day.

WHO COVID-19 Situation Report 64 Dated 24 March 2020 at 10:00 CET

Flattening the Curve

Why it’s good for you

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Stay Safe,