Putin Orders 36-Hour Orthodox Christmas Truce In Ukraine

Update (1015ET): Shortly after Erdogan spoke with Putin this morning, the Russian leader has ordered a temporary cease-fire in Ukraine Friday and Saturday to mark Orthodox Christmas.

The statement from the Kremlin cites earlier appeal from Patriarch Kirill for ceasefire over the holiday. Russian Orthodox Church leader Patriarch Kirill had previously said in a statement posted to the church’s official website: 

“I, Kirill, Patriarch of Moscow and of all Rus, appeal to all parties involved in the internecine conflict with a call to cease fire and establish a Christmas truce from 12:00 on January 6 to 00:00 on January 7 so that Orthodox people can attend services on Christmas Eve and on the day of the Nativity of Christ.”

There’s been no response so far from Ukrainian officials.

• KREMLIN: RUSSIA TO ANNOUNCE TRUCE IN UKRAINE FROM 1200 JAN.6 TO 2400 JAN.7 – IFX
• KREMLIN: RUSSIA CALLS ON UKRAINIAN SIDE TO DECLARE A CEASEFIRE AND ALLOW PEOPLE TO ATTEND SERVICES ON CHRISTMAS EVE, AS WELL AS ON CHRISTMAS DAY – IFX

Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas on Jan. 7th, and is a major holiday just as in the West during December (the Orthodox Church’s Julian calendar December 25 falls on January 7 on the West’s Gregorian calendar).

Bloomberg has meanwhile hinted at a negative response from Ukrainian leaders, given their initial reaction to Patriarch Kirill’s Christmas truce call: 

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his forces to cease fighting in Ukraine for 36 hours starting Friday at noon, Moscow time, in what appeared to be a rare sign of conciliation in an invasion that’s heading for its second year.

The Kremlin said Putin gave the order Thursday for Russian Orthodox Christmas. It follows an appeal by the patriarch of that church, which has close ties to the Kremlin. Ukrainian officials denounced that as a trap. Kyiv has demanded Russia remove its troops from Ukraine as a condition for any ceasefire.

This was the reaction of a Zelensky advisor to Patriarch Kirill’s ceasefire call, in reference to the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC):

ROC is not an authority for global Orthodoxy & acts as a “war propagandist”. ROC called for the genocide of Ukrainians, incited mass murder & insists on even greater militarization of RF. Thus, ROC’s statement about “Christmas truce” is a cynical trap & an element of propaganda.

— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) January 5, 2023

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged Russian leader Vladimir Putin in a Thursday phone call to implement a unilateral ceasefire in order to jumpstart negotiations toward ending the war with Ukraine. “President Erdogan said that calls for peace and negotiations should be supported by a unilateral ceasefire and a vision for a fair solution,” a statement from his office said.

Erdogan said future peace talks should be guided by a “vision for a fair solution”; however, the Russian leader repeated his red line and ultimately what it will take to get Moscow to the negotiating table: Kiev must give up the annexed territories in the east. 

Putin stressed in the call that Ukraine must acknowledge “new territorial realities” for talks to happen. Additionally the Russian president “acknowledged the destructive role of the West, pumping weapons into Kyiv, providing information and guidance,” according to a Kremlin statement.

Erdogan is expected to also hold a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later on Thursday. Zelensky has of late stressed that Ukraine will not make any territorial concessions for the sake of peace and reiterated his country’s stance that no talks can happen until all Russian troops withdraw to their pre-Feb.24 positions. 

Turkey has vowed to continue strengthening infrastructure that facilitates the grain export deal out of the Black Sea . The grain deal has been the only successfully negotiated major agreement of the war thus far which has actually held (in addition to various prisoner swaps). 

Also on Thursday, a call for peace was issued by Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, who is urging both sides to observe a Christmas ceasefire. 

Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas on Jan. 7th, and is a major holiday just as in the West during December (the Orthodox Church’s Julian calendar December 25 falls on January 7 on the West’s Gregorian calendar).

Patriarch Kirill said in a statement posted to the church’s official website: 

“I, Kirill, Patriarch of Moscow and of all Rus, appeal to all parties involved in the internecine conflict with a call to cease fire and establish a Christmas truce from 12:00 on January 6 to 00:00 on January 7 so that Orthodox people can attend services on Christmas Eve and on the day of the Nativity of Christ.”

While the majority of churches and people inside Ukraine still have ties to the Russian Orthodox Church, the Ukrainian government has unleashed a crackdown, seeking to hand these churches over to a local church hierarchy that Moscow sees as schismatic. Kirill early in the war generated controversy by appearing to support the invasion amid calls from the West for him to condemn it as the seniormost clergyman in Russia.

If the Russian church’s call for a Christmas truce is observed and holds, it could increase the chances of the two sides eventually seeking a more permanent ceasefire and negotiated settlement. But as is stands now, given Ukrainian forces have over the past months seen battlefield successes, this possibility still looks remote.