Read the Beforeitsnews.com story here. Advertise at Before It's News here.
Profile image
By Freedom Bunker
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views
Now:
Last hour:
Last 24 hours:
Total:

The Most Important Week Of The Quarter: Month End, Fed, ECB, Earnings , PCE And More

% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.


The Most Important Week Of The Quarter: Month End, Fed, ECB, Earnings , PCE And More

By Goldman trader Paolo Schiavone

Key Events – Global Week Ahead:  Fed and ECB, Lunar New Year, 20% S&P Earnings

  • Monday : China industrial profits and PMI, Germany IFO , US new home sales, Lagarde speak in Budapest, Bessent confirmation. 3rd Feb first QRA. 
  • Tuesday : US consumer confidence, durable goods, Informal dinner Lagarde and Von der Leyen. GM, Starbucks results. 
  • Wednesday : Fed, Brazil and Canada rate decision, Spain GDP, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, ASML earnings, Reeves speech in Oxfordshire, BOJ minutes
  • Thursday : ECB, Apple, CAT, Visa, UPS Deutsche Bank, Shell earnings, US Q4 GDP; RBA Jones speaks, BOJ Himino speaks.
  • Friday : France CPI, Germany CPI, unemployment, US personal income, PCE inflation, employment cost index, Samsung earnings, Bowman remarks.

Trading markets

  1. The plethora of events suggest x-asset vol is likely to be back next week. It’s Fed vs Mag7 earnings                          
  2. Very opportunity-rich environment if you’re quick on the trigger. But also, plenty of bad volatility (in as, not fundamentally driven, hard to forecast).                                                                                                                           
  3. So, you need to be nimble, size at half-75% of normal. Strong convictions weakly held. Weak convictions expressed in a risk efficient, premium down format.

Framework: Technical, Flows, Positioning. Valuation, Sentiment. 

  • Technical 30% : Top of the channel for US Equities/ Europe Breaking out / Oil and Copper at support / Momentum in bonds sell off seem to have calmed. 
  • Flows 30% :  Global equity funds slowed (+$6bn vs +$13bn last week). Fixed income stronger demand (+$14bn vs +$11bn last week). EM negative flows. FX , USD demand. 
  • Positioning 20% : Cleaner in Equities/ FI/ FX. Tariffs, strong earnings, healthy thematic, supportive macro have left clients with limited convictions. 
  • Valuation 10% : Low Equity Risk premia / Neutral for bonds. Would say not very high for the Mag7 given the reset in EPS expectations. Bonds 
  • Sentiment 10%: AAII stretched, GS Neutral. Despite one of the largest USD weekly drawdowns in years still constructive in Equities, Short oil, Neutral bonds. 

Fed view: We are pricing, 7 for March ,14 for May 25 for June. We view “market pricing as a probabilistic statement about possible Fed paths in coming years is too hawkish”

Interesting Trades:

  1. Fed- Dovish vs pricing- Rec SFRM5Z5
  2. Rec BOC meeting on Wed- 25 or more than 0
  3. Deepseek- low quality dip on Nasdaq. Buy dips in NQH5
  4. Earnings: ASML short MSFT long/ Meta long
  5. Earnings: Oracle/ Microsoft/ Amazon vs NVDA
  6. Long Copper into Chinese seasonality and Lunar new year destocking.

Weekend News flow: 

  1. Trump ridicules Denmark and insists US will take Greenland – FT
  2. Meta’s chief AI scientist says DeepSeek’s success shows that “open source models better vs proprietary ones”
  3. President Trump said he wants to “clean out” the Gaza Strip and urged Jordan and Egypt
  4. German Election Taboos Broken as Merz and Musk Flirt With AfD
  5. Baltic Sea data cable damaged in latest case of potential sabotage
  6. Reeves seeks to unlock billions from UK pension schemes for investment- FT

Charts: 

Chart 1 GS Flow of funds last week:

Chart 2: Mag Seven: EPS expectations slowing- buying opportunity on a lower bar ( BBG)

Chart 3: SPX short and USD shorts capitulation was at full speed.

Chart 4: Corporate Insiders are dumping shares at the fastest pace in history (data going back to 1988) 

Chart 5: Gold continues to be one of the highest conviction/ trend trades out of the gates in 2025. (Goldman)

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 – 23:13


Source: https://freedombunker.com/2025/01/26/the-most-important-week-of-the-quarter-month-end-fed-ecb-earnings-pce-and-more/


Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world.

Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.

"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world. Anyone can join. Anyone can contribute. Anyone can become informed about their world. "United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.


LION'S MANE PRODUCT


Try Our Lion’s Mane WHOLE MIND Nootropic Blend 60 Capsules


Mushrooms are having a moment. One fabulous fungus in particular, lion’s mane, may help improve memory, depression and anxiety symptoms. They are also an excellent source of nutrients that show promise as a therapy for dementia, and other neurodegenerative diseases. If you’re living with anxiety or depression, you may be curious about all the therapy options out there — including the natural ones.Our Lion’s Mane WHOLE MIND Nootropic Blend has been formulated to utilize the potency of Lion’s mane but also include the benefits of four other Highly Beneficial Mushrooms. Synergistically, they work together to Build your health through improving cognitive function and immunity regardless of your age. Our Nootropic not only improves your Cognitive Function and Activates your Immune System, but it benefits growth of Essential Gut Flora, further enhancing your Vitality.



Our Formula includes: Lion’s Mane Mushrooms which Increase Brain Power through nerve growth, lessen anxiety, reduce depression, and improve concentration. Its an excellent adaptogen, promotes sleep and improves immunity. Shiitake Mushrooms which Fight cancer cells and infectious disease, boost the immune system, promotes brain function, and serves as a source of B vitamins. Maitake Mushrooms which regulate blood sugar levels of diabetics, reduce hypertension and boosts the immune system. Reishi Mushrooms which Fight inflammation, liver disease, fatigue, tumor growth and cancer. They Improve skin disorders and soothes digestive problems, stomach ulcers and leaky gut syndrome. Chaga Mushrooms which have anti-aging effects, boost immune function, improve stamina and athletic performance, even act as a natural aphrodisiac, fighting diabetes and improving liver function. Try Our Lion’s Mane WHOLE MIND Nootropic Blend 60 Capsules Today. Be 100% Satisfied or Receive a Full Money Back Guarantee. Order Yours Today by Following This Link.


Report abuse

Comments

Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

MOST RECENT
Load more ...

SignUp

Login

Newsletter

Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.