Predictions For 2018

I’m often wrong. It’s amazing how uncommon it is to find humans who are willing to admit that they were about something. We all know that nobody is perfect and that everyone makes mistakes. However, it’s stunning how rare it is to find someone who easily and regularly admits to being wrong.

Even when the evidence is irrefutable, so many people will still deny it and stubbornly cling to the idea that they were right.

At best, they will simply grumble and walk away. Humans will almost every utter these simple words, “I was wrong.” 

In 2017, I read a fun book called But What If We’re Wrong? 

I highly recommend reading the hilarious beginning of the book (which is free to sample on Amazon). The book loses steam as it progresses but the beginning is brilliant and funny.

In an effort to remind myself how wrong I can be, I will make some predictions for 2018.

Lots of people like to say, “I told you so,” but they’re highly selective about what they remember. “I knew Bitcoin was going to rise in 2017!” Yes, but what about all the other stupid things you predicted that didn’t go well? If you’re Nostrodamous, why aren’t you rich?

7 Predictions for 2018

1) Bitcoin will finish the year lower than it started. It’s about $14,500 at the end of 2017. I’m bullish for the long-term for cryptocurrencies. I bought Bitcoin when it was $250. But if 2017 was the breakout year for cryptocurrencies, 2018 will be the breakdown year. I prefer not making a more precise prediction than that. OK, fine. You want me to be wrong? I’m always happy to admit that I’m wrong. I’ll guarantee being wrong by making a prediction that it will be worth $4,444 by the end of 2018.

2) Russia will have political upheaval in the 2nd half of 2018. Putin winning streak will come to an end. Although he will probably still remain in power, he will face more challenges than he has ever faced. For the first time in his 20-year reign, he will have more Russians disapproving of him than approving of him. 

3) Egypt will have another wave of protests. Tahir Square will make the headlines again. After spending a month in Egypt in December 2017, it seems the population is ripe for another minor uprising. But Sisi will remain in power.

4) Zimbabwe will practically no improvement. Emmerson Mnangagwa will “win” the 2018 election by rigging it as he always did for Mugabe. The policies of the 76-year-old man will differ little from Mugabe. So the country will go nowhere. It can’t get much worse, right? I’m probably wrong about that too.

5) Cyril Ramaphosa will oust current South African president, Jacob “Dipstick” Zuma and boldly continue the country’s lackluster leadership ever since Mandela left. Although some things have improve in South Africa for the last 20 years, it has consistently disappointed most people. It won’t go the way of Zimbabwe, but it will try.

6)  Trump will be impeached in 2019. I know these are just 2018 predictions, but I just want to double-down on the prediction I made after Trump’s first 100 days: that he would be impeached in 2019.

7) The stock market will suffer a 20% decline. The Dow Jones is around 25,000 at the end of 2017. It will revisit 20,000 in 2018.

Gosh, if you just look at these predictions, you’d think that 2018 will be a gloomy year. All my predictions are negative. (If Trump were impeached in 2018, that would be a positive. It’s frustrating that we will have to wait until 2019.)

So I’ll make a happy prediction: I predict that I will visit Europe in the summer of 2018 and then in August 2018, I’ll return to the USA after a 5.5 year absence. I’ll see my mom for the first time in 5+ years. I’ll celebrate by going to Burning Man on August 27, which is Rejoice’s 26th birthday.

Of course, the USA immigration may refuse Rejoice’s visa in which case I’ll be stuck in Africa. And I’ll have the glory of admitting that I was wrong again!