GNS Science has made the forecast which was revealed to Christchurch city councillors and community board members at a meeting of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (Cera), The Press reported.
Roger Sutton, the incoming chief executive of Cera, said GNS Science had warned of a 23% chance of a magnitude 6.0 to 7.0 quake in the next year.
The risk would drop to 10% the following year, the newspaper reported.
Sutton told ONE News he had been advised by GNS that it was unlikely that an earthquake would hit in the same area as the September 4 and February 22 quakes.
Two hundred business leaders met with Sutton last night to hear the plan to get business up and running again.
Sutton also told the group that Christchurch needed investment to rebuild .
He said the only way for Christchurch to come back stronger after the February 22 quake is through business, and the only way the city will rebuild is if people invest in the city.
Christchurch city councillor Sue Wells wrote on her blog following the meeting that “what we are seemingly certain of is that you shouldn’t put your Blu-Tack away just yet”.
Wage subsidy deadline
Soon after the quake, 47,000 workers in Canterbury received a Government wage subsidy.
That figure has now dropped to 4000 with only 900 Cantabrians joining the Earthquake Support Subsidy benefit since February.
Social Development and Employment Minister Paula Bennett said the Government is “dealing with the realities” in Canterbury by ending its business support package.
The package was designed to help businesses get back on their feet and consisted of a weekly $500 support subsidy for each fulltime worker, $300 for each part-time worker and a job-loss cover of $400 a week for those left out of work.
The assistance ends today. Bennett said the package had cost the Government $200 million.
Prime Minister John Key yesterday said the scheme was always going to have to come to an end.
“Unquestionably, it will affect some businesses, I accept that.”
The Council of Trade Unions wants the assistance package extended up to a year.
Earthquake-related issues spokesman Marty Braithwaite said there was going to be demand for skilled labour during the rebuild, but much of the work was unlikely to start until next year.
For more information on the package click here.
- With Fairfax