GNS Science has made the forecast which was revealed to Christchurch city councillors and community board members at a meeting of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (Cera), The Press reported.
Roger Sutton, the incoming chief executive of Cera, said GNS Science had warned of a 23% chance of a magnitude 6.0 to 7.0 quake in the next year.
The risk would drop to 10% the following year, the newspaper reported.
Sutton told ONE News he had been advised by GNS that it was unlikely that an earthquake would hit in the same area as the September 4 and February 22 quakes.
Two hundred business leaders met with Sutton last night to hear the plan to get business up and running again.
Sutton also told the group that Christchurch needed investment to rebuild .
He said the only way for Christchurch to come back stronger after the February 22 quake is through business, and the only way the city will rebuild is if people invest in the city.
Christchurch city councillor Sue Wells wrote on her blog following the meeting that “what we are seemingly certain of is that you shouldn’t put your Blu-Tack away just yet”.
Wage subsidy deadline
Soon after the quake, 47,000 workers in Canterbury received a Government wage subsidy.
That figure has now dropped to 4000 with only 900 Cantabrians joining the Earthquake Support Subsidy benefit since February.
Social Development and Employment Minister Paula Bennett said the Government is “dealing with the realities” in Canterbury by ending its business support package.
The package was designed to help businesses get back on their feet and consisted of a weekly $500 support subsidy for each fulltime worker, $300 for each part-time worker and a job-loss cover of $400 a week for those left out of work.
The assistance ends today. Bennett said the package had cost the Government $200 million.
Prime Minister John Key yesterday said the scheme was always going to have to come to an end.
“Unquestionably, it will affect some businesses, I accept that.”
The Council of Trade Unions wants the assistance package extended up to a year.
Earthquake-related issues spokesman Marty Braithwaite said there was going to be demand for skilled labour during the rebuild, but much of the work was unlikely to start until next year.
For more information on the package click here.
- With Fairfax
Roger Sutton, the incoming chief executive of Cera, said GNS Science had warned of a 23% chance of a magnitude 6.0 to 7.0 quake in the next year.
The risk would drop to 10% the following year, the newspaper reported
That is odd, how can they be so sure of a drop to 10% probability next year……………oh yes Elenin will be on the wayout of the solar system.
You notice that they were even talking about the two ancient volcanoes that are coming back to live just south of Christchurch.
They have been smelling sulphur in the air since the last major quake. They have hot springs spring up out of nowhere since the last major quake also. There is also believe underwater super volcano off the coast of Christchurch. Does seem to be getting a lot of attention is it. We know that volcanic activity and earthquakes go hand and hand together.
I am originally from Christchurch. The extinct twin Lyttelton & Akaroa volcanoes blew out about 11 million years ago & became 2 natural harbours with wide,relatively low but steep crater rims. Some roads run along the summit.Yes they have smelled sulphur. You would only worry if the hot water continued for some time, like more than a year. Hanmer Springs about 130km north has hot springs & is a fav area to go in winter. Could the Volcanoes ressurect? I doubt it. More likely small hot springs could form. Would be great for the economy over time.
Also there are no active or dormant volcanoes in the South Island & about 4 to 5 in the North Island & White Island which is offshore. The main fault line runs along the west of the South Island & up through the central of the North Island & is called the main divide in the South.There are smaller offshoot fault lines.It is where the Australian & Pacific plates collide. The main divide can be seen on Google earth. It runs right through Wellington, New Zealands capital which is overdue for a quake.
The Southern Alps is the official name for the mountain range. Napier in the North Island got alot of damage in the 1931 quake & is now an art deco city. Forgot to add that on google you can`t really see the fault. On a geological site you can.