1929, 1987, And 2013: Three Of A Kind?
By Jeffrey Cooper May 17, 2013
And as I sat there brooding on the old, unknown world, I thought of Gatsby’s wonder when he first picked out the green light at the end of Daisy’s dock. He had come a long way to this blue lawn, and his dream must have seemed so close that he could hardly fail to grasp it. He did not know that it was already behind him, somewhere back in that vast obscurity beyond the city, where the dark fields of the republic rolled on under the night.
Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that’s no matter—tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther…And one fine morning — So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”
-F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby
When coming events cast their shadows before, those shadows fall on the New York Stock Exchange.
-William Hamilton
Coming events usually, but not always, cast their shadow, as Mr. Hamilton says.
There are times where things can occur outside the understanding of the markets. But usually, the market reads the tea leaves of the Great Spiritus Mondi and is more prescient than any one man or any group.
Therein lies the attraction of those who have sought to outwit and beat the market. It’s the grandest chess game of them all — a 3-dimensional chess game, if you will.
Mr. Market has the best antennae, the best radar of any one person or any one group in sensing what is ahead of it.
While the best study of the markets is a study of the markets themselves, the markets are not foolproof predictors of coming events in the markets and in the economy. Not since 1913 anyway, when the free market system met The Cooler.
The market crash in 1929 may not have caused the Great Depression, but it predicted it.
Bernanke, the great student of the Great Depression, came on the job just before the crisis hit in 2007, almost as if the powers that be ‘knew’ what the agenda was and brought on the Great Mathemagician to “make sure the Fed would not make the same mistakes it made in the 1930’s”, as Bernanke himself put it years before the crisis.
Yep, this was our boy.
In 1987, following another boom and crash, there were more than a few folks around who noticed the similarities in the market to the pattern from 1929 — some before the fact, some after — who thought it might lead to another great economic contraction.
Enter the Maestro.
Then in 2008, we got a slow-motion train wreck. Enter the Bearded One. While the Fed clearly thought the issues that led to and exacerbated the crisis were contained as it was in front of their face, Bernanke wasn’t about to make the same mistakes as the Fed in 1929, right?
No, if the Fed was going to make mistakes this time, it was going to be a whole new deal.
So while the market itself may be the best predictor of coming events, since 1987 and the big Greenspan Put and especially since 2009 and the really big Bernanke Put, what does the market know and when did it know it? Can we trust price?
Today, it seems that big money is investing virtually entirely on the premise and assumption that the Bernanke Put and the Fed will save the day as long as everybody plays along and stays in line. Don’t fight the Fed isn’t just a saying now; it’s become a neon maxim lighting up the sky as if in some psychedelic world of investing where Timothy Leary is Chairman of the Fed.
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