The S&P 500 Sets New High Mark in Week of Calm

The fourth week of September 2018 was fairly uneventful for the U.S. stock market. Mainly, that’s attibutable to the pre-FOMC meeting media blackout that silences Fed officials, who had been making quite a bit of noise in previous weeks.

Still, it was a big week for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), in that it reached a new record high closing value of 2,930.75 on Thursday, 20 September 2018. And while the S&P dipped slightly on Friday, coinciding with a pullback in tech stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Index: IND) went on to set its own new record high to close the week.

What makes the week that was really stand out from preceding weeks is how little news there was to drive stock prices during it, where investors appear to be focusing more strongly on the distant future quarter of 2019-Q1 in setting the level of the S&P 500, as suggested by our spaghetti forecast chart. The likely reason why is because investors are now giving a little over a 50% chance that the Fed will hike short term interest rates in the U.S. shortly before the end of that quarter, where investors will be looking toward the FOMC meeting this week for indications of what the Fed will do at that time.

Until that happens, we’re afraid that we’re all in for an extended and unsatisfyingly bad episode of “Will They Or Won’t They?” in market-related news coverage this week. And then the calm before storm will end on Wednesday afternoon, after which, investors will switch to “Watch What Happens Next“. Which should not ever be confused with a market-edition of Watch What Happens L!ve, although that might be more entertaining.

Speaking of calm before the storm, here’s what an uneventful week looks like in terms of market-moving news headlines when the Fed’s minions have been muffled….

Monday, 17 September 2018

• Oil near flat as market weighs U.S.-China trade tensions, Iran sanctions
• US STOCKS-Wall St down as trade tensions weigh on tech, consumer discretionary stocks

Tuesday, 18 September 2018

• Oil gains 1 percent on signs OPEC not prepared to boost output
• Wall Street bounces back as investors shrug off trade tensions

Wednesday, 19 September 2018

• U.S. oil prices surge as inventory draw adds to supply concerns
• What sector overhaul means for tech stocks, Wall Street
• S&P 500, Dow up as rising treasury yields boost banks

Thursday, 20 September 2018

• Oil prices pull back as Trump tweet shifts focus to OPEC
• QE remnants limp along – U.S. Fed buys $1.1 billion of mortgage bonds, sells none
• Industrials lead Dow to record high; tech boosts S&P, Nasdaq

Friday, 21 September 2018

• Oil prices end week up in volatile trade ahead of OPEC meeting
• Dow hits new closing high ahead of index reshuffle

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz listed the positives and negatives he identified from the week’s news of the economy and markets.