New Poll Spells Trouble for Mark Pryor

ALEXANDRIA, VA — Today, the Senate Conservatives Fund (SCF) released the results of a new poll, which show how difficult it will be for Mark Pryor (D-AR) to win re-election to a third term in the United States Senate.

“Mark Pryor’s liberal voting record and his close association with President Obama have all but ruined his re-election chances,” said SCF Executive Director Matt Hoskins. “Arkansas voters know that Mark Pryor is a liberal and they are ready to replace him with a conservative.”

SCF’s super PAC arm, Senate Conservatives Action (SCA), has spent $400,000 this year educating voters about Senator Pryor’s liberal record. Specifically, SCA has sponsored two radio ads and three television ads to define Pryor before he could reinvent himself.

“Our media campaign has driven Mark Pryor’s numbers into the ground and forced ultra-liberal groups to come to his rescue,” added Hoskins. “He’s in a very desperate position now so there’s no telling what he and his liberal friends in Washington will do next.”

The Senate Conservatives Fund is an independent, grassroots organization that works to elect true conservative leaders to the U.S. Senate. SCF does not support incumbent Senators and is not affiliated with the Republican Party or any of its campaign committees.

On June 22-23, 2013, Basswood Research conducted a statewide survey of likely general election voters in Arkansas. The survey was conducted by live professional interviewers by telephone. The sample size was 600, with a margin of error of +/- 4%, at a 95% confidence interval. Interviews were geographically distributed to reflect actual voting patterns in Arkansas general elections.

Key Findings

Three-term incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor is in deep trouble. Pryor is in a dead heat with potential Republican candidate, first-year Arkansas Congressman Tom Cotton. Pryor receives support from 41% of likely voters, while Cotton wins 40%. However, the 19% of remaining voters who say they are undecided have negative views of Pryor and are disproportionately Republicans and Independents. As is true in many cases, a longtime incumbent such as Pryor who barely gets 40% of the vote in polling has a hard time getting re-elected.

Arkansans want to elect a conservative to the Senate. Arkansas likely voters oppose Obamacare 56%-36%. Mark Pryor cast the deciding vote in favor of Obamacare. Arkansas likely voters are 62% pro-life. Mark Pryor has voted for taxpayer funding of abortions. By a margin of 50%-37%, Arkansas likely voters say they would prefer “a Republican Senator who would mostly provide a check and balance against President Obama’s agenda,” over “a Democratic Senator who would mostly support President Obama’s agenda.” Mark Pryor sided with Obama in 95% of his votes.

Pryor’s close association with President Obama, and his liberal voting record are hurting his re-election chances. By 40%-38%, voters believe that Pryor “sides too much with Obama and the liberals in Congress.” When asked to identify Pryor’s political views, 41% of Arkansas voters call Pryor “liberal,” whereas 30% call him “moderate,” and just 8% consider Pryor “conservative.” Among the plurality who view Pryor as liberal, Cotton leads Pryor on the ballot test 62%-24%.

Senate Conservatives Action’s recent TV ads have had an impact. SCA’s recent TV ads highlighted the facts that Pryor voted for Obamacare and has voted with Obama 95% of the time. Both of those accurate statements are highly correlated with the views of Pryor noted above that are driving his poll numbers down to the dangerous-for-incumbent 41% level.