ES Morning Update September 21st 2018

The long awaited FP from 2/27 was hit yesterday so if it’s going to work we should start down from here. Slowly at first of course with bounces along the way, but that should have been the high for awhile. Today is quad witching where 4 different asset classes expire. Dividend on the SPY are out today as well and it causes a drop in the price level to offset the payout. Over on the dividend.com website this morning it shows a $1.3226 payout for 9/21/2018 on the SPY, so we’ll open that much lower on it for sure… plus any extra based on the futures price if they too pullback some today.

Right now they are basically flat (up a little) so hard to say where the market is going today. It’s overbought of course and should pullback, but with the DOW making a new all time high one has to wonder if there’s more upside still coming before a larger drop happens. For me I just have to go with the FP signal and it was fulfilled yesterday, so we should be close to a turn back down now. As far as technical s go, the daily chart of the SPX overbought with negative divergence but that’s not a guarantee of a turn back down yet. The allure of the 3000 level could drag this market up or sideways for awhile longer but everyone becomes bullish and then it will rollover, falling short of hitting that level.

From the past when important “big even number” level are close I’ve noticed the SPX will get up into the XX70-XX90 zone before it dies out and rolls over. We topped at 2940 on the ES yesterday and only 2934 on the SPX, so there could be more upside yet to come before all the bears become bulls. Again, I just went with the FP on this move so I’m already as tall as mini me right now. I could be totally wrong and we could continue up but I had to go with the FP as they have been working really well this year. So, lets see where today takes us as it should be an interesting day with all those assets expiring. Have a great weekend.