New Year’s Resolutions and Predictions

Happy New Year! Everyone usually makes them.  I never have.  I figured if my life was good enough to change, why not do it in the present.  This year the regular cadence of my life is way out of whack.  It’s starting to really grate on me.  I prefer ritual and life has gotten way way too random with the rehab I am doing.

A new puppy will do that to you too.   Our dog’s digestive system hasn’t been right since we rescued him. Giardia or something like that…..

So, my resolution next year is to get a regular cadence going.  Of course, I will be out of Chicago most of January so it will be tough to do right away.  Traveling and cadence/ritual do not go hand in hand.

Here are some things I am going to try and establish with some real rigor in 2019.

1. Intermittent fasting.  I have put on a few pounds and need to drop them.  I have a lot of friends who have successfully done IF and dropped a ton of weight.  By ton, I mean 50 lbs or more.  I tried it off and on in 2018, and rarely eat breakfast.  But, this year I want to commit fully and eventually try to go to one meal per day.
2. More Iyengar yoga.  I was in the habit.  The rehab and puppy came into my life. Got to get it back to three to four times a week.
3. One free weights weightlifting session per week.  I work out at CityWideSuperSlow in Chicago once a week which will continue but I want to add in one free weight session
4. Getting back on my bike when the weather turns. I haven’t ridden in a couple of years and that has to change-or sell my old Trek 5500
5. Read a few fiction books.  Even if it’s older classical fiction.
6. Read a few science fiction books, even if it’s older science fiction.
7. Get rid of more stuff.  We went from 4 storage lockers to 1.  I’d like to get that one smaller.
8. Travel for business more.  We need to establish ourselves in NYC, Atlanta, Charlotte, London, Toronto and other Fin Tech hubs.  We are entering Phase 2 of our fund and that’s sort of fun.
9. Continue to grow and do the best that I can at my job.

What are you resolving to do?

These are significantly tougher.  Probably as valuable as the piece of paper they are written on.

Political Predictions:

1.  Trump will be impeached by the Democratic Congress but it will be a severe over reach.  This will ruin any goodwill on potentially working together.  He will not be removed from office by Senate Republicans who are warming to him.  Mainstream Americans are getting sick of the polarization. Impeachment will benefit Trump.
2. Illinois will lose a record number of residents.  So will California and New York.  Part of it is the taxes and part of it will be due to feeling the pinch of the SALT parts of tax reform.  My evidence is anecdotal but after being in the holiday party scene I don’t know anyone who is not forming an exit plan for Illinois of a certain age.
3. The Freedom Caucus will take more control over the Republican House agenda as the Establishment Republicans are unmasked for who they really are.
4. Regulation of the FANGS will be embraced by both parties, but not enacted until after 2020.
5. Many Democratic notables will declare for the Presidency, but none will win.  A darkhorse will win like John Hickenlooper of Colorado.
6. The partisan divide in our country is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.  See Jane Curtin.
7. The new mayor of Chicago will be Michael Madigan, wait I mean Susan Mendoza.
8. China will not cave on tariffs. But, Europe will.
9. Ruth Bader Ginsberg will retire.

Financial Predictions:

1. Crypto won’t rally.  It’s not gonna break a lot either.  It is in a holding pattern as systems get built.  2020 will finally be the year for crypto to see some adoption.  It won’t be in the US.
2.  The stock market will be higher but by less than its traditional benchmark of 8%.  I am thinking up 4%.
3. The Federal Reserve will raise rates 2-3 times next year.
4. Seed stage startup valuations will go down for the first time in a few years.
5. Chicago will have a record year for venture financing.
6. Startup hubs outside the Valley will have record years for financing.
7. Buybacks will accelerate; It will be a record year for buybacks.
8. There will be more venture backed IPOs next year than the previous two years
9. M+A activity will be higher than past years.
10. GDP will be right around 3%.  Inflation will remain muted.
11. Minority employment will continue to be record breaking.  Mainstream media won’t report it but the people that it affects will know it.

Some Startup-ey predictions:

1.  More new consumer brands will be started in 2019 than ever before.  It’s easier to start one than it ever has been and it is easier to find a niche market
2.  A large percentage of consumer will be targeted to babies, and younger moms.
3.  Some startup sectors will consolidate.  Do we need 10 food delivery startups?  Combine and conquer.
4. Microfunds will drop in new funds started
5. More family offices will start their own funds

Some Sports Predictions

1.  Super Bowl is KC vs NO; Drew Breese brings home another trophy
2.  World Series will be the Astros vs Brewers.  Hurts as a Cub fan but I don’t think the pitching will be there.
3. Bama wins the NCAA championship again.  Duke wins in basketball.
4. No one touches Golden St in the NBA
5. Tiger wins the Masters