ES Morning Update July 17th 2019

So far this morning the market is acting kinda like you’d expect… a whole lot of nothing as it waits on more information about the China deal. Trump tweeted “a long way to go” yesterday when talking about the deal and the markets dropped a little in fear of the unknown. I don’t know what they have planned but if the market closes down a little today then my thoughts are that they plan to tank it on Thursday and blame it on this deal.

There’s even a possibility that it will turn into a flash crash, but if it does it’s a strong buy at the low close tomorrow I believe as whatever negative news they put out to cause the drop will be reversed after hours to cause a huge bear squeeze back up on Friday. This isn’t a guarantee of course but I’ll be looking for a small red close today on the DOW and SPX, but mainly the DOW as it secretly leads the market. If we get it then I think we’ll drop hard on Thursday to run stops on the bulls and get everyone super bearish at the bottom to only then turn it back up hard and fast on Friday.  (But if we don’t get the red close (on the DOW) today then the plans have changed and more time is needed to trigger the next buy or sell).

Basically, if this plays out like I suspect (hope, dream… meaning red close today) then tomorrow could be like August 24th, 2015… which you know was a 1 day limit down drop and stop run on the bulls that got completely reverse afterwards. I have no way of guaranteeing any such drop as I can’t see the future. But odds are much higher for this happening tomorrow then any other day this year as we have a passport code for Thursday from Spiderman. So the cards are all lined up but will it happen? Only time will tell. Happy Wednesday.