Hurricane Florence Update: Huge Track Change

There are some big, big changes to Hurricane Florence as of the 5am update from the National Hurricane Center

Here are the Key Messages for the 5 AM EDT advisory for Hurricane #Florence pic.twitter.com/lY1y5KSZb9

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 12, 2018

Let’s look at the track map

For the Raleigh area, this actually mean a bit, but, as WRAL points out

On Thursday at 8 a.m., expect 5 to 10 mph winds. Those will increase to 15 mph winds at noon, 15 to 20 mph winds by 5 p.m. and 30 to 35 mph winds overnight. Winds will top out in the 40 to 45 mph range in Raleigh on Friday morning before weakening Saturday and Sunday.

Despite this new path, Raleigh is by no means “in the clear.” Elizabeth Gardner says our impacts remain the same, and North Carolina communities, particularly from Raleigh south, will still see devastating flooding and heavy winds.

The windfield is huge, as is the rain field. The flash flooding chance has gone way, way down, but, overall flooding remains high. In the Raleigh area, there is still a 70%+ chance of tropical storm force winds, that’s 39mph up to 74mph, and, we have to remember that even if 39mph (this means sustained for 1 minute) gusts could be much higher. The potential for TS force winds stretches from Florida to Delaware. We could see that starting Thursday, again.

The rain potential is now in the 6-10 inch range, instead of looking for 15+. That’s still quite a bit.

The big thing here, though, is that the track can, in fact, shift back to the north. Raleigh is on the edge right now, but, any little change could make a big difference. So, people should not let their guard down in those areas that are now on the right side of the storm. Plus, with still having winds and rain, still plan. I’m going to get a little tabletop gas grill (I needed a new grill, anyhow) for $40. If you’re in Raleigh, ask me later where I found it. Not giving up my secret till I’ve purchased.

And wait to see what the 11am and 5am forecasts say. Don’t relax quite yet.