7 Signs Trump Will Landslide 2020

Via Billy
 

(If held today… what KMC believes would happen.)

If the 2020 election were held today President Donald Trump would win by a bigger margin than in 2016, carrying the most number of states since the Re-election of President Ronald Reagan.

I say this because like I did two years before Barack Obama was elected, I saw trends that added up to a significant win, I noted them in this column, and they occurred in near complete detail.

In 2016 with polls and every media pundit, and even many of his own supporters doubting the outcome of the election, I predicted the map that would match the election night result minus one western state and one congressional district in Maine.

As in those two cases I’m not claiming some sort of prescience. Rather I’m saying the momentum on the ground seems to tell us something different than perhaps what social media, old media, recent history or even traditional political logic would seem to indicate will happen.

It won’t come without a major amount of hard work. (Something then Candidate Trump demonstrated in 2016 in greater abundance all while spending far less money than his opponent.) But the signs point to an enormous win.

Here’s some of what I see:

17 of 30 above 50. The latest Gallup polling data released this week indicates perhaps the most telling reason. President Trump won 30 states on election night. President Trump’s approval rating on the day he was sworn into office was 45%. For perspective Presidents Obama, Clinton, & Reagan were at 47%, 46%, & 40% finishing up February of the third year. All of them cruised to re-election. Trump’s approval in Gallup is 44% and continues to hover around 50% in Rasmussen where he spent almost the entirety of February. But in Gallup’s most recent survey the key is where his strength is centered. The top 30 states where President Trump’s approval is the highest, mirror the 30 states he carried on election night. With the top 17 of those 30 sitting above 50%, exceeding 60% in more than one. Simply repeating wins in these 30 states insures victory.

16 of 20 below 40. A deeper look reveals room for growth in additional states. On election night Trump lost 20 states (a couple of them by lower margins than Hillary’s closest state losses.) Yet in only 16 of those 20 does his approval rating sit below the 40% threshold. Colorado and Minnesota sit at 39%. New Mexico at 38%. Surely Brad Parscale strategically understands that 7 additional states are within reach. He is likely already on the ground and on the web targeting those pro-jobs, pro-growth, pro-commonsense pockets and developing effective messaging to reach them.

(Gallup Polling’s Current Job Approval)

The Complicit Media. The media has already convinced themselves of the impossibility of a Trump re-election similarly to how they were popping corks on the Hillary Presidency in 2016. The inability to react to their free market which continues to give them lower ratings and smaller audiences at every turn seems to point to a delusional run at coverage for 2020 that will be worse—not better—than 2016. And the more they do, the more Trump wins. The President has outpaced all who have come before him in understanding how to actually make the media work for him. And in his term it has simply been to allow them to demonstrate their abject deranged bias, while he uses the power of rallies and Twitter to not just respond, but to direct and redirect the news cycle. They are in a sense his greatest ally—simply because their hatred and bias seem undeterred.

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The Unknown Candidate. Though we do not know who will face off against the President in the general election of 2020, some things are increasingly clear. They all represent a clear regression on the progress that the current administration has delivered. This is why they hope against hope that one of the many impeachment-priming committees will uncover something that both houses of Congress, multiple media outlets, and to date a broadly empowered Special Counsel have been unable to. The candidate will be forced to embrace socialism or face the wrath of the new hardliners on the left. And with California being such an early primary state in this cycle expect the wildest most extreme public policy positions to emerge. Hence it is important to remember that the “democrats” who vote in the general election in the entirety of the rust belt will have little in common with “The Democrat” who wins California’s presidential primary.

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The issue comes down to this: 

With the President holding 90% of his base, and with his best approval ratings occurring in the 30 states he already won…

With Democrats holding Congress and the 13% approval rating that comes with it…

With Democrats watching 4-7 additional states beginning to slip through their fingers because of an improved economy, higher wages, better border security, and a long list of presidential promises kept…

With Democrats proposing ill-conceived non-solutions that show (according to analysts) only marginal climate alteration after they warn us that we will die in 12 years and a $93 trillion dollar price tag…

It appears (pretty convincingly) that President Trump will earn a second term. 

And given the options, more people in more states seem to be coming to the same conclusion.