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“Great Disruptions”

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“Great Disruptions”
by David Stockman
“And summer’s lease hath all too short a date.”
– William Shakespeare, “Sonnet 18” (1609)
“The S&P 500 Index opened at a new high yesterday, and it closed at a new high, too. Today, it made a new intraday high. Today is also, literally, the longest day of the calendar year. This June 21 was almost a whole lot more than all that, though. I’m talking “infamy” proportions.
According to The New York Times, we were about 10 minutes away from launching an airstrike on Iran – before the Donald realized it’d kill 150 people and would therefore be “not proportionate” to the loss of a single unmanned aerial vehicle. As the Tweeter-in-Chief explained, “We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die.”
The Donald, folks, is all who stands between John Bolton and his war with Iran. Not only are we looking to stoke Forever War fervor. We’re doing it at what’s looking more and more like a critical turning point for the economy. We’ve already discussed how long and how weak this “recovery” from the Great Recession is.
Now, we have solid evidence this run is nearing its end. That’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment situation report for May 2019. The labor market has stalled. That’s effectively stall speed in the labor market, which has been the last bastion of the Trumpian/Wall Street delusion that the main street economy is strong as an ox. It wasn’t just the punk 75,000 new jobs. There was a 75,000 downward revision to the prior two months.
The model the Bureau of Labor Statistics builds in a heavy “momentum” factor due to the birth/death factor and other statistical techniques. So, it takes a while to “catch up” to reality. That’s what these revisions are about. It’s the kind of stuff that happens at big turning points.
For instance, the final jobs numbers for the worst six months of the Great Recession came in five years after the fact. Once the BLS finally reconciled its “establishment survey” of the jobs market to the actual payroll records of millions of U.S. businesses, large and small, the difference between the BLS “model” as initially reported and real-world tax-paying business records was nearly a negative 600,000 per month.
That 75,000 gain is likely to be revised downward. It already looks “down” compared to the 151,000 three-month moving average… the 175,000 six-month average gain… and the 196,000 12-month average.
Moreover, the annualized change in full-time employment has decelerated at a startling pace since November. The year-over-year gain in full-time employment (reported in December 2018) posted at 3.1 million just six months ago. As of May 2019, the gain has plunged to just 1.07 million. In effect, two-thirds of the momentum in full-time jobs growth has vanished since Halloween.
Click image for larger size.
The Tweeter-in-Chief’s “Best Economy, Maybe Ever”? It’s clearly come a cropper. We’ve seen 29 monthly employment situation reports on his watch. And the average gain is just 195,000. That compares to 220,000 over Barack Obama’s last 29 reports.
The Donald has fixed exactly nothing. There’s no MAGA going on. Even the alleged best year during this recovery for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, 2018, is nothing more than a statistical trick. We’ve seen a handful of spells during this “recovery” amid which real GDP growth hovered around 3%. But they didn’t last under Obama. And they’re proving no different under Trump.
Indeed, with the second quarter nearly in the books, the New York Fed’s “Nowcast” projects annualized GDP growth of just 1.39% for the three months ending June 30.
Folks, the economy is stalling, fast. And that’s before the full impact of new tariffs and the Trade War. There’s no telling what becomes of the Tweeter-in-Chief should recession strike. That’s the other side of the process of “Peak Trump.” And it’s going to be ugly.”


Source: http://coyoteprime-runningcauseicantfly.blogspot.com/2019/06/great-disruptions.html



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