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Deep League Waiver Worthy: Trying To Find Value For Those Who Are Truly Desperate

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by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Are you searching for help on the waiver wire in an extremely deep league?  It’s never easy, but here are a few names that may be tempting you.  Are they worth it?  Is there upside?  Let’s take a look:

Niko Goodrum – Detroit Tigers
Injuries and an ability to play across the field have given Goodrum an opportunity, but don’t rule out the potential to emerge as an everyday starter over Dixon Machado (.225, 1 HR, 1 SB over 142 AB).  Goodrum made noise recently with a 2 HR day (and 3 HR over a two-game span) and while we shouldn’t confuse him with a big-time power threat, he did hit 13 HR with 11 SB at Triple-A last season.  Having added 25 doubles and 5 triples, with the power coming from a 10.2% HR/FB, there’s some upside.

Maybe more important is Goodrum’s potential to couple 10-14 HR power with some stolen bases.  He’s stolen as many as 35 bases in a season (2014) and had 29 as recently as 2015.  That puts him on the map as a potential 10/20 type option.

Of course with the good there’s bad, as he hasn’t shown a very good approach at the plate over his 81 PA:

  • SwStr% – 15.8%
  • O-Swing% – 34.1%

Considering his 13.1% SwStr% at Triple-A in ’17 it shouldn’t come as a surprise, especially as he posted a 6.0% walk rate.  There’s value in his power/speed potential, but if he is thrust into regular AB he’s likely going to be exposed from an AVG/OBP perspective.

Verdict – Short-term plug-in, but likely not going to be a factor long-term

 

Isaiah Kiner-Falefa – Texas Rangers
Injuries keep giving him an opportunity, and in 116 PA he’s hitting .245 with 2 HR and 2 SB.  Adrian Beltre is sidelined once again, and that appears to be giving Kiner-Falefa another long-term look at AB.  He has shown a good approach (5.7% SwStr%, 29.2% O-Swing%) and that is going to give him appeal, but does he truly bring anything else to the table?

As it is he’s hitting .245, with a 28.7% Hard% not giving much hope.  Maybe he develops into an 8-12 HR threat, with 31 doubles, 3 triples and 5 HR last season, but even that’s a stretch.  His best “skill” may be an ability to steal a few bases (he had 17 at Triple-A last season), but that is likely capped at about 10-12.

Verdict – Not nearly enough upside to consider outside of a desperation play

Hunter Dozier – Kansas City Royals
With Lucas Duda hitting the DL Dozier has been summoned from Triple-A and is getting an opportunity to fill in at 1B.  Of course he’s long been on radars and was hardly tearing it up at Triple-A prior to being summoned, hitting .254 with 1 HR and 11 RBI over 143 PA.  The problem was a bloated strikeout rate, as he was carrying a 30.1% mark courtesy of an 11.7% SwStr%.  What do we expect to happen as he moves back up to the Majors?

While he’s shown some power potential in the past, we need to see him actually putting the ball over the fence before we are going to buy in and believe.  He wasn’t showing that in the Pacific Coast League, so what makes us thing he’ll suddenly catch fire and deliver in the Majors?

Verdict – Pass, unless he starts to show us something

Source – Fangraphs

Missed our Top 100 prospect rankings?  Make sure to check it out by clicking here.  



Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=36065
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