Post-Hype Breakout Candidate: Has Amed Rosario Truly Figured It Out Or Is A Regression Coming Quick?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Amed Rosario was a once a highly touted prospect, though struggles in the Majors to start his career caused him to virtually become ignored by fantasy owners.  However he’s been showing signs of figuring it out as of late, as he’s hitting .288 with 2 HR, 10 RBI, 14 R and 5 SB in August (he has 10 SB over the past two months).  Is this a true breakout, or is it nothing more than an aberration?

Not surprising, his Hard% and Line Drive rates are through the roof compared to his first few months:

He’s also showing a significantly better approach at the plate, posting a 9.5% SwStr% and 32.1% O-Swing% (compared to season marks of 12.3% and 39.4%, respectively).  Considering his better approach it makes sense that he is making harder contact.

It’s interesting, because he’s seeing more “hard” pitches in August then he has all season (64.80%) and you have to wonder if the move into the leadoff spot has led to it.  It would make sense, but he also has tightened up his contact against offspeed pitches (Whiff% of 9.52% for the month) and has been more capable of laying off the pitch (28.57% Swing%, compared to a 56.56% mark for the season).

Of course the better approach against offspeed pitches is a positive, but it’s not that he’s improved his production against the pitches (or breaking balls for that matter):

• Changeup – .000/.000
• Slider – .083/.083
• Curveball – .250/.250

While you can argue that he’s made an adjustment, opposing pitchers are going to also adjust again.  As the fastballs seen reduce again will he continue to be able to layoff the other types of pitches?

Seeing him utilize his speed is a positive sign that no one should be ignoring.  That is going to put him back on radars and make him a potentially viable option.  However he needs to continue to carry the improved approach into and throughout September (as opposed to just 65 PA thus far) before we push him as a true post-hype breakout candidate.

It’s possible he gets there and we fully endorse picking him up and trying to see if this is a true breakout.  However it’s going to take more than just a few weeks to turn us into full believers.  Keep that in mind before fully buying in.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball