What Makes An NBA Most Valuable Player?

The NBA Most Valuable Player Award is an annual award given to the best performing player of the regular season, a tradition started back in the 1955–56 NBA season. Until the late 70’s, the MVP was selected by a vote of NBA players. But in the 1980–81 season, they switched it up, with a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters deciding who should get the award.

If you have been watching this season, you know that the race is the closest in years. But a look back at the history of the award reveals what really matters to MVP voters.

Let’s be honest. The NBA’s MVP title should be awarded to the best player in the league. Unless it’s the most important player for the league’s best team. Or the star with the most impressive individual stats. Or the one whose team would be the most affected by his absence.

And therein lies the problem – the MVP race is hugely subjective, with the definition of what makes a player truly ‘valuable’ seeming to change every year, as our friends at Betway recently noted.

That’s particularly true this season, with Giannis Antetokounmpo favored to win over James Harden in what will likely be the closest vote in years. Whether Harden’s offensive brilliance makes him more influential than Antetokounmpo’s all-round game is up for debate, but a look back at previous MVPs (Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, etc) reveal what really matters when it comes to deeming who is the Most Valuable Player.

Scoring, for one. Being the league’s top scorer hasn’t historically been a prerequisite for an MVP, but that’s all changed in recent years, with 4 of the last 5 winners averaging over 30 points per game. But it’s not just about putting up big numbers each game.

Being a team player has become much more important in the past decade, with 8 of the 10 MVPs since 2008 having ranked inside the NBA’s top 10 in assists. Using that logic, it follows that while centers and power forwards dominated the award in the 1990s and early 2000s, guards and ball-dominant forwards who should now receive most of the votes.

And while 7 of the 11 MPVs between 1993-2004 ranked in the top 10 in the league for rebounds, only one player has reached that mark since then: Point guard Russell Westbrook, in 2017.

Furthermore, while the MVP is supposedly a single-season award, it’s rarely given to a player who has not been a dominant player in the NBA for awhile. Don’t believe me? Take the last 17 MVPs. Did you know that 14 of them had been voted into the All-NBA first team in the previous season, and all 14 players were coming off a top-four finish in the MVP voting? Yup.

Over the past decade, one individual statistic has been the clearest indicator of who will be the NBA’s MVP: Player Efficiency Rating. This advanced metric, developed by the Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies, John Hollinger, boils down all a player’s stats into a single number. Of the past 10 MVPs, eight led the league in PER.

As important as statistical brilliance is, though, the team you play for is crucial as well. Being part of the best team in the NBA is a major factor, with 7 of the last 10 winners having played for the team with the NBA’s best record. In fact, of the last 15 winners, 11 topped their conference at the end of the regular season, with just three of the last 25 MVPs winning fewer than 54 games (like Karl Malone in the lockout-shortened 1998/99 season).

It’s for that reason that Antetokounmpo seems to be a lock for this year’s race, as the 7-footer leads the league in PER, is clearly the best player for the Milwaukee Bucks, who won 60 games this season, three more than any other team.

Winning more games than the Golden State Warriors puts him at a major advantage over Harden, as the Houston Rockets “only” won 53 games, finishing 3rd in the West and 5th overall in the NBA.

Harden’s statistical excellence is undeniable, leading the league in scoring in the regular season with 36.1 points per game and ranking 7th in assists. But Antetokounmpo has also put up great all-round numbers and has the added edge of playing for a superior team.

And that’s why our money is on the Greek Freak for taking home this year’s NBA MVP.

Who do you think will take home this year’s NBA Most Valuable Player award?

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