Botson: Asymmetric Warfare

You already know the words before they are typed out here in the article: my heart goes out to the victims of the Boston bombings yesterday.  To those who were injured, those who lost loved ones and those who were emotionally shaken I can only express my deepest sympathies and pray for healing.  In my heart of hearts I can only hope that justice will be served to those who orchestrated this attack, swift justice which falls like a 10 pound sledge hammer on a watermelon.

I was at work yesterday when the bombs went off, when the news reports starting rolling in and chaos was in the air.  My initial thoughts were: ground burst, IED…civilians…oh my God.  It was one bomb and then two with rumors of more in the area.  Believe it or not my mind flashed back to a book by Tom Clancy which I read a few years ago entitled Dead or Alive.  In the book similar events took place all across the USA in the form of coordinated terror attacks.  I held my breath as I watched the TV and heard reports of “shotgun pellets” or as I assumed, quite possibly a home made Claymore anti-personnel mine of some sort.  Men and women on the battlefield never really get used to casualties but they realize those risks come as price of admission, they do what’s required of them and Soldier on.  But to see innocent civilians going down on live television, writhing in pain, hearing accounts of limbs flying through the air while others stepped in pools of blood, I was seething with rage.

Reports will come out in the next few days or weeks while investigators try to determine what was the cause behind this attack.  Was it a lone wolf, a coordinated group of well trained dissenters, or maybe a novice who got lucky (not likely)?  They will do their job and peel back the onion, dissecting every detail while simultaneously piecing together the sequence of events which led up to this tragedy.  I will not be part of that process obviously but based on what I saw on television two things remain certain.  We are still at war, and it is anything but conventional.

Asymmetric Warfare

From Dictionary.com

Asymmetric Warfare is defined as warfare in which opposing groups or nations have unequal military resources, and the weaker opponent uses unconventional weapons and tactics, as terrorism, to exploit the vulnerabilities of the enemy.

From the Military Review, which published Doctrine for Asymmetric Warfare, written by Colonel Clinton J. Ancker III, U.S. Army, Retired, 2003.

While asymmetric warfare encompasses a wide scope of theory, experience, conjecture, and definition, the implicit premise is that asymmetric warfare deals with unknowns, with surprise in terms of ends, ways, and means. The more dissimilar the opponent, the more difficult it is to anticipate his actions. If we knew in advance how an opponent planned to exploit our dissimilarities, we could develop specific doctrine to counter his actions. Against asymmetric opponents, doctrine should provide a way to think about asymmetry and an operational philosophy that would take asymmetry fully into account.

Right about now you might be thinking, thank you Captain Obvious for pointing out what we already knew.  If you have a firm grasp of ASW I applaud you because I certainly do not.  What I can do is recognize some of the tell tale signs surrounding this attack and point out that (while many have short term memories) this fight is far from over.

Know your Enemy

Here’s what you need to know: we fight a determined and calculating enemy who are anything but cowards.  Quite often troops who would come in contact with the enemy overseas would be quick to exclaim that the guys who could hump barefoot through the mountains on an ounce of rice per day while harassing coalition forces via hit and run ambushes were cowards.  ”Why don’t they fight us man to man, toe to toe, mano y mano!?!” I only ask you this, what were the tactics we employed during the Revolutionary War?  Rogers Rangers anyone?  I should note that I certainly do not condone attacks on innocent civilians, but it is a tactic that we have employed in the past quite effectively to destroy morale.  Dresden, Tokyo, Hiroshima and Nagasaki immediately come to mind.  Am I suggesting that we respect the bomber(s) who terrorized Boston yesterday because of the tactics they used?  Absolutely not!  What I am saying is that we need to understand what we are up against and realize that they are definitely playing chess, we can’t afford to believe this is a simple game of checkers.

What ARE they capable of?

Sun Tzu said we should know our enemy, and unfortunately this is something that most Americans miss.  We live our lives from paycheck to paycheck, weekend BBQ to mall shopping trip, playoff game to vacation, completely oblivious to anything outside of our Facebook circle of friends and the 40 mile radius that surrounds our subdivision.  We roll through the world with blinders on and as such when something like Boston happens we are reduced sobbing into our pillow wondering how something like this could ever happen on main street USA.  Why would anyone do this to us?  Why can’t they live and let live?  I’ll tell you why: they hate each and every one of us and no amount of Westernization will fix that.  Here’s a few nuggets of information on the enemy we face based on an informal SWAG and analysis of the recent events which took place in Boston.

Disposition: Highly motivated, competent and very patient.  Willing to die for what they believe in, willing to wait years for just the right moment to strike in order to inflict maximum carnage while making the biggest statement.

Composition: Structured hierarchy operating out of cells, sometimes lone wolves expose themselves but that is rare.  I’m not an expert here, I can only wager a guess based on personal observation and from what I have seen in the movie Zero Dark Thirty.

Strength:  Unknown.  Surely it is in the hundreds of thousands with cells popping up to make strikes (e.g. Boston) when the time is right.

Most Likely Course of Action:  Single attacks like what we saw in Boston.  Deadly, dangerous and instilling quite a bit of fear in the American public.

Most Dangerous Course of Action:  Coordinated attacks across the country in multiple cities over extended periods of time.  Mr and Mrs Jones are now afraid to go to the grocery store, the mall, the movies despite attempts from government officials to assure them that everything is under control.

Why are they doing this?

It’s simple really and falls in line with the example I used above with Mr and Mrs Jones.  It’s all about striking fear into the hearts of those “cocky westerners” and bringing them to their knees.  Think about this, after the shooting in the Colorado theater last year did you think twice about going to the movies?  Exactly.  So what if our enemies were able to disrupt the American lifestyle by setting off bombs in various locations around our country?  The war would be brought to our door step in a way never seen before with everyday people afraid to leave their own homes for fear of becoming a target.  I must interject here that this scenario I am laying out is something that I hope law enforcement on all levels has war-gamed and prepared for, and could squash before it ever became reality.  But as yesterday shows even the tightest security still has flaws which can be exploited.

What should we do?

 If you are anything like me you carry a weapon whenever laws permit, keep a get home bag in the car and maintain as much situational awareness as humanly possible.  Yet none of that means jack-bo-diddly if an IED goes off 10 meters away from your location while you are watching a race, parade or simply in a crowd at a concert.  Personally I avoid crowds and areas I deem to be high threat but it is impractical to assume that we should all live our lives as if we are on one never-ending movement to contact.    What we can do is remain educated to the risks which we face, understand the enemy which seeks to do us harm and be prepared to react to unforeseen circumstances as much as the situation will allow.  Unfortunately there is no silver bullet, no magic pill, no 100% guarantee that if we all do X, Y and Z we’ll get the girl and save the day because life just doesn’t work like that.  Just know that it is incumbent upon us to view the world through a different lens than most who merely skim along the surface, we need to embrace the sheepdog mentality as much as possible and be prepared to protect the flock.  On a final note, to those in Boston my heart goes out to you and I stand with you.  This act will not go unpunished and I look forward to the day those responsible are brought to justice.

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