'This winter will not be normal': Forecasters say El Niño is set to outgrow 1997 event as they warn phenomenon is now too big to fail

October sea level height anomalies show that 2015 is as big or bigger in heat content than 1997.
‘Over North America, this winter will definitely not be normal,’ Patzert said.
‘However, the climatic events of the past decade make ‘normal’ difficult to define.’
Researchers say the phenomenon will get even stronger. 
‘The trade winds have been weakening again,’
‘This should strengthen this El Niño.’ 
Weaker trade winds out of the eastern Pacific allow west wind bursts to push warm surface waters from the central and western Pacific toward the Americas.  
In its October monthly update, scientists at Noaa’s Climate Prediction Center stated: ‘All multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter.
‘The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño…Overall, there is an approximately 95 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015–16.’
The July–September average of sea surface temperatures was 1.5°C above normal, NOAA reported, ranking third behind 1982 (1.6°C) and 1997 (1.7°C).  

A strong El Nino arrives about once every 20 years. 
Ocean temperatures show this one to be the second-strongest since such record keeping began in 1950, said Eric Boldt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. 
That would make it weaker than the El Nino of 1997-98 but stronger than the El Nino of 1982-83.
Both of those winters were known in California for relentless rain, strong winds and heavy snow. 
Waves pounded the coast, mudslides rolled down mountainsides and floods swamped homes and claimed lives.
Storms blamed on El Nino in 1997-98 killed at least 17 people, wiped out strawberry and artichoke crops, pushed houses off hillside foundations and washed out highways. Damage was estimated at more than $500 million.
The 1982-83 tempests left 36 people dead, damaged or destroyed more than 7,900 homes and businesses, and caused $1.2 billion in losses, according to the weather service.
El Ninos can be unpredictable. 

WHAT IS EL  NIÑO
El Niño is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator.
Usually the wind blows strongly from east to west, due to the rotation of the Earth, causing water to pile up in the western part of the Pacific.
This pulls up colder water from the deep ocean in the eastern Pacific. 
However, in an El Niño, the winds pushing the water get weaker and cause the warmer water to shift back towards the east.
This causes the eastern Pacific to get warmer.
But as the ocean temperature is linked to the wind currents, this causes the winds to grow weaker still and so the ocean grows warmer, meaning the El Niño grows.
This change in air and ocean currents around the equator can have a major impact on the weather patterns around the globe by creating pressure anomalies in the atmosphere.