Diplomatic Cable Shows Swedish Prime Minister Wants To Join NATO

	
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 STOCKHOLM 000677 

	SIPDIS 

	FROM AMBASSADOR BARZUN FOR THE PRESIDENT 
                                

                                    

                                    

                                        

                                        
                                    
                                

	E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2019 

	TAGS: PREL ECON ETRD EFIN SENV EUN SW

	SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SWEDISH PRIME MINISTER REINFELDT VISIT TO WASHINGTON 

	REF: BRUSSELS 1461 STOCKHOLM 00000677 001.2 OF 004 

	Classified By: Ambassador Matthew Barzun for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D). 

	¶1. (C) Mr. President, You will meet with Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik 
Reinfeldt next week when he leads the EU Troika delegation at the U.S.-EU Summit 
in Washington. Reinfeldt was an early public supporter of your candidacy and 
strongly endorses many aspects of your global agenda, including climate change, 
global economic recovery, and a whole government approach to Afghanistan. His 
center-right, four-party coalition government (called "The Alliance") is pro-U.S.
 and supports deeper transatlantic ties. Reinfeldt's party even calls for Sweden 
to join NATO, though not all his coalition partners think the issue is ready for 
full consideration -- especially eleven months before general elections here. 
Reinfeldt and his Foreign Minister Carl Bildt have a fairly straightforward 
division of labor on EU Presidency issues: Reinfeldt works on climate change 
and the solving the financial crisis, while Bildt tackles the details of most 
other foreign policy issues. 

	¶2. (C) Reinfeldt and other Swedish foreign policy leaders are an intriguing 
bunch. Sometimes they are quick to take a surprising hard line (as with Russia's
invasion of Georgia) and sometimes they are so slow to come around that they 
drag EU decision-making to a halt (as with EU autonomous sanctions on Iran). 
Under Reinfeldt, Sweden has just recommitted to working with us in Afghanistan 
for the "long term." Sweden has increased its number of troops in the northern 
part of the country from 100 in 2005 to 450 currently to 500 during 2010. Sweden 
also supports a robust EU election observer mission this fall. Sweden has used 
its role as EU President to pursue objectives that compliment ours, including 
deepening EU ties to the Western Balkans and other former Soviet states. 
Reinfeldt is one of a few EU leaders who publicly support Turkey's EU membership, 
and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt has been active on both Turkish accession issues 
and Cyprus. But on Guantanamo and Iran, Sweden can and should do more. 
Reinfeldt's government welcomed your call for the closure of the detention 
facility, but has yet to demonstrate the political will to accept detainees 
for resettlement in Sweden. On Iran, Sweden has hampered efforts by the EU to 
impose additional sanctions, arguing that a UN Security Council resolution is 
needed first. A direct request to Reinfeldt for Swedish leadership on these 
issues would be important. 

	¶3. (SBU) Reinfeldt's top priority for the Swedish EU Presidency is a successful 
outcome at the December COP-15 climate change negotiations. He has focused 
Sweden's EU Presidency on an "eco-efficient" economy for Europe, i.e. growing 
the economy while reducing carbon emissions. (Between 1992-2008, Sweden increased
GDP 46% and reduced green house gas emissions by 9%). Realizing that a 
comprehensive agreement is unlikely without U.S. legislation in place, Reinfeldt 
told his officials to cease criticizing U.S. climate change policy and to seek a 
political agreement to resolve some issues, such as financing, with a commitment
 to conclude a comprehensive treaty with emission targets in early 2010. The day
 after he meets with you, Reinfeldt will travel to India for the EU Summit there.
 Later in November, he will travel to China for that EU Summit. Because Reinfeldt
 is focusing the India and China Summits on climate change, we recommend you 
coordinate messages to those governments with him when you meet. 

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	Climate Change 

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	 Â¶4. (SBU) Swedish officials have told us we need to understand how important c
limate change is to Reinfeldt -- that it is "in his heart." Reinfeldt talks 
about climate change constantly and is directly active in trying to manage the 
negotiating process among EU Member States heading into COP 15. His governing 
coalition has pinned much of its hopes for re-election on a successful EU 
Presidency, and how voters judge Sweden's EU Presidency will depend considerably 
on what happens in Copenhagen. Opinion polls in Sweden show around 85% of people
putting environmental issues as the top priority their government should address. 

	¶5. (C) The main public theme of Sweden's EU Presidency has been the drive 
toward an "eco-efficient" economy, i.e. growing the economy while reducing 
carbon emissions, which Sweden has done successfully after introducing a carbon 
tax in the early 1990's. Realizing that a comprehensive agreement STOCKHOLM 
00000677 002.2 OF 004 is unlikely without U.S. legislation in place, Reinfeldt 
ordered his Cabinet to stop criticizing U.S. climate change policy, and since 
then his officials have become more pragmatic, telling us it is important to 
"deliver something even it if is not the end of the road." In the absence of a 
legally binding treaty, Sweden and EU officials will seek a framework or 
political agreement to resolve some issues, such as financing, with a commitment 
to conclude a comprehensive treaty with emission targets in early 2010. Swedish 
officials are concerned, however, that we are running out of time to agree on 
climate change financing before Copenhagen. The Swedish Presidency is using EU 
Summits with Brazil, South Africa, Russia, China and India to push for progress 
on climate change. Swedish officials have called on the U.S. to show greater 
leadership in pressing the emerging economies to seriously discuss climate 
change financing. 

	¶6. (C) Reinfeldt will be traveling to India and China in November, and you may 
wish to coordinate message with him when you meet. Sweden has a long-standing, 
well-developed dialogue with China on climate change and reducing the energy 
intensity of China's economy. This includes regular exchanges between 
environmental officials, a Swedish-Chinese advisory panel to the Chinese 
government on climate change, and Swedish companies like Volvo holding their 
firms in China to the same environmental standards as for plants in Sweden. 
Reinfeldt's State Secretary for Climate Change Lars Erik Liljelund, who 
frequently visits China, tells us China looks to Sweden as a model on climate 
change and other issues because Sweden was the first Western country to 
recognize the Mao regime (in 1950), and is viewed by China as a good example 
of a "harmonious society" with a highly developed social benefits, taxation 
and environmental protection system. Liljelund says this special relationship 
is helping Sweden push China to reduce the energy intensity of its economy. 
Liljelund and Reinfeldt's State Secretary for Internal Policy Coordination 
have both suggested that the U.S. and Sweden coordinate efforts to narrow 
the gap between Chinese and U.S. positions in the climate change negotiations. 

	 
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	Financial Crisis 

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	 Â¶7. (SBU) Reinfeldt has let Finance Minister Anders Borg take the lead on 
coordinating the Swedish and EU response to the financial crisis, concerning 
himself with the issue of executive bonuses. There, the European and U.S. 
interpretations of the Financial Supervisory Board (FSB) standards differ. 
While the U.S. believes a substantial part of executive remuneration should be 
variable, Sweden shares the widely held European view that it is impossible to 
construct a system that manages variable compensation in a way that reduces 
risk. The European Council has nearly completed work on its Capital Regulatory 
Directive, which will include executive bonuses. The Swedes hope it will be 
approved at the November 20 meeting of EU Financial Ministers (ECOFIN). 

	¶8. (SBU) Finance Minister Borg has warned about the dangers of creating two 
different financial systems between the U.S. and Europe if there is insufficient 
coordination on regulatory reform. Finance Ministry officials tell us they would 
like to coordinate with the U.S. "as much as possible," but can only coordinate 
"as much as allowed" by EU Member States. 

	 ----------- 

	Afghanistan 

	----------- 

	 Â¶9. (SBU) Reinfeldt and his government affirm that they are commited to 
Afghanistan for the "long-term," but can and should increase their commitment. 
Sweden has some 450 troops in four provinces in Regional Command-North, joined 
by 200 Norwegians and Finns, runs two OMLTs, and plans to deploy a third in 2010, 
when the Swedes will add some 50 troops. A Swedish C-130 was in country during 
the August elections, and will be redeployed next year, along with Swedish 
medevac helicopters. Sweden is sending additional development experts and 
upping its development aid to Afghanistan to roughly $75 million per year 
for each of the next three years. 

	 Â¶10. (SBU) On the civilian side, Sweden wants to strengthen the EU Police 
Mission (EUPOL) in Afghanistan. Although it has only nine million people, 
Sweden has 16 police officers and STOCKHOLM 00000677 003.2 OF 004 civilians in 
EUPOL; if all EU Member States contributed at Sweden's proportional level, 
EUPOL vacancies would be filled several times over. The Swedes are frustrated 
that other EU Member States have not done more to support EUPOL and Foreign 
Minister Bildt is leading an effort to pressure reluctant capitals. On the 
multilateral front, Bildt has directed the rewriting of the EU Afghanistan-
Pakistan strategy, leading to a pledge to increase EU civilians, better 
coordinate EU missions in Afghanistan, and increase focus on strengthening 
Afghan capacity for self-governance. 

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	Iran 

	---- 

	 Â¶11. (S) Reinfeldt has urged a "pragmatic" approach to Iran, including dialogue 
and cooperation, although his public comments on Iran lack the comprehensive 
details that are often part of Foreign Minister Bildt's statements. Reinfeldt 
is committed to opposing Iranian nuclear programs, but favors a unified EU 
approach rather than a specific Swedish position, especially during the 
Presidency. Sweden has hampered EU efforts to impose additional sanctions, 
arguing that a UN Security Council resolution is needed first. Reinfeldt 
publicly opposed President Ahmadinejad's appointment of Defense Minister Ahmad 
Vahidi. At a press conference in September, Reinfeldt warned that if Iran 
"decides to go for confrontation, then confrontation will happen." Similar 
statements have also been made by FM Bildt who has, since September, publicly 
advocated the use of sanctions to support a diplomatic dialogue. For economic 
reasons, Sweden is generally skeptical about the effectiveness of sanctions and 
in particular with Iran, where Ericsson and Volvo Trucks, among other Swedish 
companies, have significant export markets. 

	 ------------------ 

	Eastern Partnership 

	------------------- 

	 Â¶12. (SBU) One of Sweden's quiet success stories over the past few months is 
the launching of the Eastern Partnership (EaP). The EaP seeks to improve the 
EU's bilateral relationships with six former Soviet states (Belarus, Ukraine, 
Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia), while encouraging democratic 
reforms and economic liberalization. Bilateral programs under EaP offer 
qualifying countries the possibility of deep free trade agreements, energy 
sector development, gradual easing of visa restrictions, and cooperation on 
border control. Russia remains suspicious of the EaP, claiming that the six 
countries fall within a presumed Russian geo-political "sphere of influence,
" which neither the U.S. nor the EU accepts. Once started, the EaP will pump 
approximately 800 million Euros annually into their economies, growing to over 
1.3 billion Euros by 1013. The meeting provides an excellent opportunity for you 
to publicly endorse the Partnership. 

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	Russia 

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	 Â¶13. (C) Sweden is wary of Russia but recognizes the commercial, political, 
energy and environmental ties that bind each to the other. Sweden's relations 
with Russia have been generally pragmatic since the end of the Cold War. Sweden 
seeks to engage Moscow, but the reemergence of Russia's Cold War-style behavior 
has caused Sweden to sharpen its tone. Sweden was one of the first nations to 
publicly condemn Russia's violation of Georgian territorial sovereignty in 2008. 
The government's security policy has also changed to reflect increasing concern 
over a belligerent Russia, given Sweden's geographical proximity and brotherly 
concern for the Baltics and Finland. Sweden publicly advocates for Russia to 
partake in European policy, but in private it closely monitors Russian activity. 
Sweden is planning for the EU-Russia Summit on November 18 in Stockholm, and 
Reinfeldt will be eager to know more about your views of President Medvedev 
and Prime Minister Putin, how you see U.S.-Russian relations developing, and 
how the EU can help maintain a positive momentum in advancing a common U.S.-EU 
agenda. 

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	Western Balkans 

	--------------- 

	¶14. (SBU) Integration of the Western Balkans into the EU fold STOCKHOLM 
00000677 004.2 OF 004 is a Swedish EU Presidency priority orchestrated by 
Foreign Minister Bildt. The Swedes have offered a variety of carrots as part 
of the accession process to entice governments to achieve the necessary reforms.
For the most part, Sweden, and Bildt, have achieved a great deal of success in 
only a few months. Bosnia, continues to be the laggard and Bildt is increasingly 
frustrated with the lack of cooperation and progress among the Bosnian 
leadership. Reinfeldt has given FM Bildt autonomy over handling the impasse with 
Bosnian government. The EU, pushed by Bildt, wants to close OHR as soon as 
possible. The U.S. also wants to close OHR, but wants the 5 plus 2 conditions 
met first. 

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	Turkey 

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	 Â¶15. (C) Sweden is one of the strongest supporters of Turkey's EU accession. 
They invited Turkey to lead the informal lunch discussion on Iraq at the 
September Gymnich, for example. Just prior to the start of Sweden's EU 
Presidency, Reinfeldt and Bildt engaged in a mild dispute with President 
Sarkozy, resulting in Sarkozy canceling his Stockholm visit. EU politics are 
not the only culprit for the slow process in accession talks, and the Swedes 
place partial blame on Prime Minister Erdogan. Reinfeldt and Bildt are concerned 
that Turkey had made no progress on meeting the additional Ankara Protocol 
requirements. 

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	Guantanamo Detainees 

	-------------------- 

	 Â¶16. (C) Accepting Guantanamo detainees is the most politically sensitive issue 
between the U.S. and Sweden. It is election year, and Reinfeldt is cautious to 
commit to something that could publicly backfire; nonetheless he is willing to 
"cooperate as much as possible" as long as security and diplomatic concerns are 
met. Post has pushed hard for Sweden's cooperation, and shortly the United 
Nations Desk at the Foreign Ministry will receive a UNHCR referral for specific 
detainees. We assess that UNHCR's referral will give Reinfeldt the political 
cover needed to defend the decision publicly. Swedish officials have noted that 
acceptance of Guantamamo detainees is made even more difficult by the front page 
coverage devoted to the arrest in Pakistan of Swedish-citizen Mehdi Ghezali, a 
Guantanamo detainee who Sweden requested be released to Sweden. BARZUN