Top Five International Trends to Track in 2013

Natural resource trends topped international headlines in 2012 – from
illicit resource trade in Afghanistan to energy competition in the South China
Sea. Which ones should readers track in 2013? Here’s a list of the five international trends
I’ll be watching in 2013, in no particular order.

1. China’s technological development in deepwater
   drilling. China made great strides in strengthening its technological edge
   in deepwater drilling last year. In May 2012, the state-run China National
   Offshore Oil Company, CNOOC, began operating the country’s first deepwater
   drilling rig, putting CNOOC in a position to transform its reach by moving away
   from solely shallow water operations to new depths, including deepwater blocs
   of the South China Sea. (Chinese estimates place 70
   percent of recoverable natural gas and oil deposits in deepwater of the
   South China Sea.)

   In December 2012, the Canadian government paved the way for CNOOC to acquire the
   Calgary-based energy giant, Nexen Inc., including
   the company’s high-tech ultra deepwater drilling technology, which would add to
   CNOOC’s technological edge in deepwater drilling. The deal still faces some scrutiny from the U.S. Congress over Nexen’s Gulf of Mexico assets. Regardless though, as China continues to develop
   its edge in deepwater drilling technology, it could speed up the country’s
   efforts to unilaterally drill in deepwater blocs of the South China Sea.

2. An increasing focus on energy development
   in the South China Sea as part of India’s “Look East Policy.” India shares
   many of the same energy vulnerabilities as other countries in East Asia,
   particularly a growing reliance on petroleum imports from the Middle East and
   North Africa. Those same vulnerabilities have contributed to New Delhi’s
   interest in exploring for energy in the South China Sea, which some countries,
   including China, view as a potential “second
   Persian Gulf.” 

   India’s foray into the South China Sea has drawn China’s ire, which has
   protested India’s recent joint ventures with Vietnam. In December 2012, Chinese
   fishing boats blocked a Vietnamese seismic vessel, causing the ship’s cables to
   snap. The episode provoked a response from the Indian government, which said it
   would “consider
   sending navy vessels to protect its interests in the South China Sea.” This
   may lay the groundwork for a greater Indian naval involvement in the South China
   Sea in 2013; it is something worth watching. 

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