California Vehicle Registrations Show Tesla Drop, Legacy Gains

Electrified vehicle sales are dropping in California, to the tune of almost 18 percent in the past two quarters. Most of the losses are in battery electrics, offset by some gains in other options, with hybrids gaining significant share.

The California New Car Dealer’s Association (CNCDA) publishes an Auto Outlook every quarter to summarize new vehicle registration figures statewide and predict sales trends going forward. California, the nation’s leader in alternative energy vehicle adoption, is a good barometer for what is likely happening or about to happen for automotive sales mixes across the U.S. CNCDA is predicting a 2.7 percent increase in vehicle sales year-on-year for 2024.

When looking at electrified vehicle registrations (battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, hybrid, fuel cell vehicles), the first quarter report from CNCDA found that Tesla’s supremacy is beginning to wane as year-to-date registrations drop for both the company and battery electric (BEV) registrations overall. Showing a clear trend as this is the second quarter in a row to show a significant drop for Tesla and the BEV market. Tesla’s numbers are down 9.8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2023, which had also seen a drop (7.8 percent) from the previous quarter’s registration figures.

Plug-in hybrids show little growth in the same period, making up roughly 3.6 percent of the overall market in California. Hybrids, however, are gaining quickly, going from 8.6 percent in the first quarter of 2023 to 13 percent of the market in the first quarter of 2024. Internal combustion engine vehicles still make up the vast majority of California’s new vehicle registrations, but are down from holding 88.4 percent of the market in 2018 to about 60 percent of the market for 2024. But electrified vehicles now make up more than a third of total new vehicle registrations.

Making up for the losses from Tesla are traditional automakers selling a mixture of battery and hybrid vehicles. Tesla’s battery-electric market share dropped to 11.6 percent while Toyota saw the most market share gain, climbing to 16.6 percent, with Honda following closely behind at 10.5 percent. Traditional, franchised dealerships saw big gains over direct sales options as a result.

Total new vehicle registrations in California are predicted to reach over 1.8 million units this year.

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