ES Morning Update April 30th 2024

A nothing day yesterday as the market is in a “wait and see” mode it seems. Really not much to add here as the 50% retracement level has been hit and pierced so there’s nothing left for upside in my opinion. Yes, there could be another squeeze to hit the 61.8% level, which would probably reach 65-70% before it finishes.

I say “could be” because of the FOMC meeting should have some wild swings from it, which is common really with most meetings. And we have Amazon earnings today as well as Apple on Thursday, so there’s lots of “events” that could cause another squeeze. There is also the common pattern of a “turn” happening around the end of the month, which could happen at the end of any month or the start of the next month.

We are right in that window now of time, so even if we get another pop higher this market should rollover and start a pullback that should last into next Monday at least. Last Thursday I posted this chart, and it could still play out.

But… if we reach 61.8%+ (5192+) before we make that turn then I have to think the top is in for this rally and that we’ll be going down to the FP on the SPY next. That means we should not go back up into OPEX for a higher high, but a lower one. That’s if they don’t just just flush it down for 3-4 days quickly to end it this week or by early next week, which is very possible as we are only around 260 points or so from the FP, and that could easily be hit in just a few days.

Yes, they can just do a small dip for a wave 1 as shown on that chart and then chop into OPEX and finally drop for the last move. And that kind of move would suck as it will be so hard to trade and very boring. We have already had a choppy move down for the A wave shown so it doesn’t normally repeat the same pattern. Typically near the end of a move there is a final capitulation drop, so I’m still leaning toward that happening. They certainly don’t make it easy, that’s for sure. That’s all I have for now. We’ll see how it plays out.

Have a blessed day.