Winter Storm Jonas Was Predicted to Bring Death To the United States

A crippling, historic blizzard will impact the Mid Atlantic this weekend, dumping upwards of 32″ of snow, whipping up ocean waves over 20′, creating damaging winds in excess of 50mph, and bringing about coastal flood problems that could rate as a Top 5 Coastal Flood event in recorded history. Lots of details and threats here: please read thoroughly:

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LIFE THREATENING STORM AND PEOPLE IN THE IMPACT ZONE SHOULD CALMLY EXECUTE THEIR WINTER STORM PREPARATION PLANS.

An intense area of low pressure will establish itself over the Mid Atlantic, dumping extremely heavy snow. Blizzard conditions are likely. Remember: a blizzard is defined as a storm in which there’s at least a 3+ hour period of falling and/or blowing snow, 35mph+ winds, and visibility at or below 1/4 mile. We believe this criteria will be met across portions of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey and blizzard-like conditions may also be experienced in portions of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and southeastern New York including Long Island.

TIMING
We believe snow will start in the Washington, DC area Friday afternoon, in the Philadelphia metro area Friday evening, and the New York City area late Friday night / early Saturday morning. Saturday will be the worst of it in this area, with snow gradually wrapping up from southwest to northeast beginning Saturday night into Sunday morning.

PRECIPITATION
Snow will be the dominant precipitation type. Depending on just how intense the coastal low pressure system is and how efficient it is at transporting milder oceanic air inland, precipitation could mix with or change to plain rain in portions of New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. However, even in those places, any rain that does fall should change back over to accumulating snow before ending. Elsewhere, a brief period of light freezing drizzle may occur at/along I-95 and places east/south. Even so, we don’t expect ice to be a major threat with this storm. Beyond plain rain and freezing drizzle, there may also be sleet (ice pellets) for a time; this threat should be confined to south of I-195 in New Jersey and not much further west than the Delaware River at the NJ/PA border…and as far south as the DC/Baltimore metro areas…and all points east.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
This storm could be one for the history books, with upwards of 32″ possible over northern Virginia and central Maryland. There will be a rather large area of 2′+ snow around Washington, DC and Baltimore. A broader area of incredible 1-2′ snows is expected from the New York City metro area through most of New Jersey and stretching back to eastern Kentucky and western North Carolina. In southeastern New England, we expect a more modest 6-12″ snowfall; the same is true over the lower DelMarVa Peninsula, southeastern Virginia, and southwestern North Carolina. Further north away from the coast, only a few inches is expected. In between that and the coast in places like Boston, we’re expecting a 3-6″ snowfall. The snowfall forecast map accounts for precipitation that may fall as non-snow.

SEVERE WEATHER
We expect thunder snow storms to pop up in an area stretching from Washington, DC north and east to the New York City metro area, including Long Island and all of New Jersey and Delaware. Some thunder snow storms may contain gusty winds and especially heavy snow rates falling at several inches/hour. More important and dangerous, they’ll have lightning. Remember: when thunder roars, head indoors! Lightning can kill in any season!

DAMAGING WINDS
Winds will be very potent with this storm, especially over the southern half of New Jersey, Long Island, Delaware, and eastern Maryland. Winds may gust to and over 60mph at times here, especially at coastal locations. Winds may bring down trees and wires, especially if they’re encrusted in heavy wet snow. Even away from the coast, winds 20-40mph are possible over southeastern Pennsylvania, central Maryland, north-central Virginia, and the DC metro area. Power could be out for a prolonged period of time from this storm; make sure you’re prepared should you have no power for an extended period.

COASTAL FLOODING
Very significant coastal flooding is expected in New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. In places like Lewes, the coastal flooding could be worse than it was when Hurricane Sandy approached the coast years ago. In New Jersey’s Monmouth and Ocean counties, we do NOT expect coastal flooding to be anywhere near as bad as it was with Sandy. But we still expect plenty of coastal flooding and beach erosion there with road closures and damage likely along the coast. Further south, in Atlantic and Cape May Counties, coastal flooding may approach (but not exceed) levels seen there during Sandy. The National Weather Service believes flooding may be so bad in New Jersey and Delaware that it’d be considered a Top 5 coastal flood event in history with records dating back to the 1940s. Depending on the severity of coastal storm surge flooding along with abnormally high tides created by the full Wolf Moon, some local officials may ask residents to head to higher ground. If you’re in an areas where evacuations are recommended, flee to higher ground as soon as possible. Heavy snow and damaging winds will reduce visibility, making travel difficult if not impossible as the storm hits.

TRAVEL PROBLEMS
While this storm is impacting the region mainly over a weekend, we expect disruption to travel –including air and rail– that could last into the start of the new week on Monday, even with the storm long gone then. Assume all travel will become difficult if not impossible late Friday night through Saturday in the hardest hit areas. Make alternate travel plans and arrangements if you have plans to be in or through the impact area. Call your airline or travel service to confirm status of your travel plans …even as late as Monday. It often takes travel companies, especially airlines, several days to get their operations back to normal after such a severe storm.

Our confidence is HIGH with this HIGH IMPACT event. We will continue to evaluate data as it comes in; as new data comes in, we may need to shrink down or our, or up or down, our snowfall map. If such tweaks warrant the production of a new snowfall forecast map, we’ll issue it as soon as we can.

Please get prepared. Be informed. Stay safe!

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