August always a bit of a worry...

As long time readers of this blog will know, August is always troubling in the markets. Everyone is away but events go onward in the meantime. In 2007 the weeks leading up to September were very rocky and a prelude to the deluge.

With Trump pushing the US economy on, high employment, low inflation and UK government debt under control, it does not at a macro level feel like things are set for a tough autumn…but there are a few signs:

As above, the FTSE looks like it is making lower highs and that could see a big drop over the autumn IF the trading patterns stick. Interesting too to see Copper falling very rapidly, in world where we need copper for everything and mining it is getting harder, not easier, it remains a leading indicator of trouble ahead.

One reason the US is currently doing well too is the big shitty stick Trump has been using in world trade. This, for example Turkey this week, is causing a flight of capital from Emerging markets including Iran and Russia (really bad there, rouble well off).

For the UK, the other week I posted on how record personal debt has been accrued and how sensitive people will be to interest rate rises – but also, given where the debt is levered against, house prices and share prices.

So many contra-indicators make for a situation that must be impossible to call, except to say I don’t think I will be pouring more savings into the FTSE much before the pre-Xmas rush.