Are We There Yet?

No, I can’t claim to have a clue to what’s happening with Brexit. This is perhaps a ‘wisdom of crowds’ job, with all your views, from the blissfully optimistic to the darkest gloom of the Cassandras, to help give us an idea of where the median lies.

A. Leave on 29th March with a deal
Something spectacular must happen to make this a reality; the House has made it clear it will not agree a deal with the backstop. Either ‘boomer’ Cox wrangles a legally binding codicil to change its mind or MPs take fright and act like mice

B. Leave on 29th March with no deal
Dream option for many Leavers, and increasingly the public, who are fed up with Brexit and importantly fed up with Brussels and becoming more hostile. But unlikely. The Deep State hate this option – it weakens them. Consequently the DS and their dags in public life will do all they can to prevent this happening.

C. Ditto options but end of June
Any Brexit delay beyond June will mean EP elections in May in the UK. The EU certainly don’t want UK MEPs back in July, and as Farage’s BrexitCorp with 100,000 volunteer candidates will probably sweep the board (For Euro elections it would get about 70% of normal Tory votes, I’d guess – but only for the EP election) neither Conservatives or Labour want the humiliation. This is my guess – we’ll go at end June. Regretfully with some mashed together deal.

D. Article 50 extended beyond June
This will mean UK MEPs in the new plenum – which no-one wants. Since any extension to Article 50 is entirely in the hands of the EU to grant (other than a total withdrawal – which we can do unilaterally before 29th March, but which would kill the Conservative Party stone dead within 24 hours) it’s probably unlikely.