Superstorm: Is Another March 1993 Superstorm Coming Next Week?

(TheWeatherSpace.com) – A couple global models are showing another powerful nor’easter by next week, but is the pattern ripe for such an event similar to March 1993?  We had one such system this season already … but my thoughts are below.  Before commenting, read the entire article.

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Perhaps now or even this weekend, sites across the world that forecast weather will be talking about the potential nor’easter for next week.  A famous model called the EURO has been quite consistent in showing this.  The EURO got the crown of the king of the weather models simply because of Hurricane Sandy, in-which it predicted 10 days in advance.  It beat every other model out there.  However, does this pattern warrant a March 1993 Superstorm?

Given the current pattern and angle of the storm hitting the Pacific Northwest, my answer to this is probably not.  I’m extremely conservative and I do not say yes to a long range pattern unless I feel confident in it.  I could be wrong, but no one is perfect.  However, this pattern will be watched here at TheWeatherSpace.com and if it happens to be the EURO was correct … I will do a write-up on the storm.  However at the current time this is how I think it’ll play out.

For a pattern like March 1993 to happen you need a rare circumstance where a surface low develops around the TN/AL border and moves northeast from there up through the Mid-Atlantic.  Such a system would bring significant snowfall to a large part of the area, with areas near the coast being spared the snow, but getting slammed with the damaging winds.  A deep sub 980mb surface low is what the March 1993 Superstorm was.  On top of that, severe storms and a tornado outbreak hit the Florida Peninsula.

Will this be anything like that?  I’m leaning toward more of a split system, where the northern half of the energy is split from the southern surface low.  This split in the two surface lows swings the southern surface low out to sea … making the scenario not happen as the EURO shows.  I’m not going to go with a March 1993 superstorm solution right now.  I will wait a few days to make the decision on updating the forecast, but for now I’m going with an out to sea scenario on a weaker system around Wednesday of this next week …