Sunday Severe Weather Outbreak May Bring Strong Tornadoes To Southern Plains

(TheWeatherSpace.com) – As forecast a couple days ago on the previous article for this area, a severe weather outbreak containing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will hit the Southern Plains on Sunday.  Some of these tornadoes may be strong.

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Depending on upper level dynamics, Eastern Oklahoma looks to be in the firing section for supercells containing stronger tornadoes.  There is one indice in the tornado model mask here at TheWeatherSpace.com that is stopping it from being a an EF4-5 scenario, but Sunday will be the test whether this indice is needed or not.  However, whether violent or strong, Ef2+ type tornadoes are probable for this event.

The storms will form almost the same time across Central Oklahoma, Eastern Kansas, through MO/IA/IL … and down into Texas.  The dryline and cold-front triple point will remain around or very near the Tulsa, Oklahoma zones.  So if in those forecast areas, it’s best to keep tuned to your weather sources for additional products.  TheWeatherSpace.com will likely need Tornado Watches issued to our alert system on Sunday morning, before the event starts.

Storms will form more isolated along the dryline into Texas.  Some parameters suggests the tornado threat is not as prominent there, including slightly higher LCL levels.  Regardless, Dallas/Fort Worth will see large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornado potential with the supercells that do form on that section of the dryline.

Further north into Missouri, Kansas, Southeast IA and Illinois will be a frontal zone orientation that makes it more linear.  Meaning storms will form and immediately start forming a line.  Tornado potential is probable, however the strongest potential will exist where the best chance of isolated supercell potential during development exists … Eastern Oklahoma.

Shear in the low levels is strongest in the evening across the strongest tornado potential zone … So as the evening hits, expect tornado potential to increase … with storms also moving eastward to Southwest Missouri and Western Arkansas, where strong tornadoes will remain possible as the shear is stronger there, regardless of merging into an MCS at night.