National Alert Forecast October 27th through November 2nd 2014

Flood risks remain in the west, colder than average temperatures and a storm front across The East-Central United States, and a Halloween storm in the Northeast.  A forecast released every Sunday here at TriforceWeather.com has four maps that outline the departure of average for precipitation and temperatures for the USA and Canada, with a flood risk map as well.  Read the rest below for more details in your region.

Pacific Northwest – The atmospheric river pineapple express events will be pointed at Oregon adn Washington yet again with above average precipitation expected as numerous storm systems come into the area.  Another storm is scheduled by Monday into Tuesday and another Thursday into Friday with Wednesday having scattered storm activity.  All and on the pattern suggest the area will remain with above average precipitation and due to the pineapple express (tropical) nature of the storms, above average temperatures as well.  Flood risks will be moderate as an average with high risk in Southwestern Oregon (Medford), where the most storm activity is expected through the week.

California – Storms will impact California starting Wednesday, mainly extreme north.  However toward the end of the week (Halloween) we’re expecting an upswing in storm activity with stronger storms moving into Northern California, with a front down into the San Francisco Bay area as well.  This same front will drag through the state and into the weekend for Southern California, bringing that region the first storm front of the season.  All of California should remain above average in precipitation, the exception of course of the Eastern Deserts where the moisture will always diminish before reaching you.  As a whole average the state will remain above average in temperatures due to the type of flow for the storms, being an pineapple express.  Storms will be the strongest on Halloween for Northern California.  Additional products will be needed.

Plains – Most of the plains will remain drier than normal because of the ridge over the Rocky Mountains.  This signals a drier northwest flow developing so what we’re looking at is drier than normal conditions with a large area of Record Below Normal from the Dakotas to Texas.  The only exception will be across Missouri, parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas as a front developing thunderstorms later Monday into Monday night, pushing eastward.  Temperatures behind the front will drop, owning to the below average temperatures for the Eastern Plains as shown on the map above.

Midwest –  A northwest flow will remain across the area for the majority of this week, owning to below average temperatures.  Scattered showers early week for Minnesota and Wisconsin will happen, however this is not enough to bring this area out of mainly much below normal precipitation.  Overall the area looks rather bland, with only colder than normal temperatures.

Great Lakes States – A northwest flow behind a frontal zone early in the week will drop temperatures to below normal across all states bordering The Great Lakes. A front will develop overnight on Monday across the area, which will up the shower/thunderstorm potential through Tuesday as well.  Looking at some spots with some flooding along the front, with Chicago, Northern IN, Southern/Eastern MI.

Southeast – Sagging frontal zone on Tuesday into Wednesday for much of the Southeast, but otherwise mainly below normal precipitation and colder than average temperatures.  Looking uneventful during this period.

Mid-Atlantic – A front on Wednesday followed by another storm (stronger) on Halloween.  While the Northeast will get the brunt of this storm, gusty wind conditions across with rainfall will be likely for the region on Halloween.  Temperatures will be around average to just above for most of the area, with below normal precipitation, regardless of the storm on Halloween.

Northeast – A large upper level low on Halloween will bring above normal precipitation for this period, with above normal temperatures for this time of year.  Average temperatures for Upstate New York however … and with that said some areas in the Upper Northeast may very well see their first snowfall of the season on Halloween.  Gusty winds will accompany the storm system in this region.  There will be some flood risks for the state of Maine with that storm system.

Canada – Colder than average temperatures for Manitoba and Ontario with a cold northwest flow behind a storm front that’ll move across the United States.  As noted per the map above, a large area of below normal temperatures is present.  But, if you are in Western Canada you’ll see more precipitation and above normal temperatures due to the pineapple express origin of the storms.  Skip on over to N.S / N.F. / N.B. and you’ll find yourself in above normal temperatures with above average precipitation, due tot he Halloween storms lasting into the weekend for those areas.  Driest in Canada will be Southern Alberta, Sask, and Manitoba.