National Alert Forecast November 4th through November 9th 2014

The Great Lakes to Southeast U.S. States will get another cold blast this week with another strong storm developing almost where the last one did.  The pattern is more amplified for most of the West Coast to bring record dry and above average temperature conditions.  And flooding concerns likely through the Southern Plains.  Continue reading for a breakdown for your location’s weekly forecast.

Pacific Northwest – Storms will continue to be likely with one hitting today, and the strongest one of the week hitting Monday and Tuesday.  Another front possible by Thursday across the region.  All and all the amount of rain this week will be less than previous weeks, but it will be enough to give most of Washington State average to above average rainfall, with average for Portland.  The storm track will not give much precipitation to areas in Southern Idaho and Oregon so unlike last week, you’ll have below average precipitation and above average temperatures.  A ridge builds in by mid-week to up the temperatures in spots.

California – Unlike last week, California will be parched this week.  There will be barely a drop of rain across the state.  The reason for this will be a large ridge of high pressure will form, and with storms missing up to the north, expecting the offshore flow factor to work in, upping the temperatures to above average across the state with below average precipitation.  This week is not your week for storms into California.

Plains – The Plains will be spot into below and above average so we’ll start north and go south from there.  Across North Dakota’s northern half there will be above average precipitation given the fact an Alberta Clipper will slide into the area by mid-week.  Additional impulses are possible, with another clipper over the weekend.  Snow will be likely.
Moving southward .. .clippers tend to miss most of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas and this is going to give those states below average precipitation.  Because of the ridge, the western parts of these states will have average to above average temperatures while the eastern sections have below average temperatures.  Go by the map above.  Nothing eventful happening here.
But … Across Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, and Texas you will see a much different tune to the atmosphere.  By mid-week, expecting moisture from Vance to make way into the region.  These regions will have above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures as a result.  Flooding will be possible along the stationary front and it will be monitored.

Midwest –  Looking at a clipper pattern with below average temperatures for MN/IA/WI/IL.  Due to the clipper pattern you’ll have average to above average precipitation across the region this week.  There are no significant storm systems to talk about for these regions, but one thing to add is all of Iowa (except northeast) will see below average precipitation because you are not in the clipper’s moisture track.

Great Lakes States – A clipper pattern will continue with chances of snow this week and below average temperatures.  The first system due to Vance’s moisture will bring rainfall to the region, but as the wrap-around happens (much like with the Halloween system) you can expect snow to be likely by Thursday with shots of snow through the weekend.  This could be a system to watch (Thursday) as it does have somewhat of a surface low here.  Named systems must have a certain criteria to be named.

Southeast – Pretty average start to the week in terms of temperatures, but by end week expect a major drop in them as a strong storm moves through the area, mainly bringing just cold air with it … the area will be below average in temperatures and precipitation.   So what we’re looking at is a dry … but cold week as the end of it into the weekend comes.  No major storms to track over the area.

Mid-Atlantic – The Mid-Atlantic will be split with PA/NJ/MD/WV and Northern VA having above average precipitation and the rest of VA having average precipitation.  This is due to that clipper track.  A stationary front will be over the area on Thursday, which will bring flooding rains to the area.  This system will be monitored further so keep tuned to TriforceWeather.com updates

Northeast – A large upper level low by Friday will affect the Northeast.  Given the current track, it may not be a snowmaker for Maine like this last storm is so what we’re going for is average to above average temperatures with above normal precipitation.  This still does not look like a nor’easter that will produce major areas of snow in the populated regions.  We have yet to see one.

Canada – Clipper pattern means colder than average temperatures across Winnipeg, MB, Ontario, and Quebec.  The flow favors above average precipitation for Alberta, Sask, and Manitoba with Winnipeg seeing those snow chances rising with the clippers this week.  Being this is a clipper pattern, drier northerly flow will keep areas directly above the Great Lakes dry.  However, further east into Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and N.F. you’ll be under the southerly flow of a nor’easter pattern, which will give you end week systems with above average precipitation and of course due to that southerly flow … above average temperatures.

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