Another Southern California Storm By End Week

Guidance suggests that a storm system is likely to hit Southern California on Thursday.  Should this remain in the next two days of monitoring, Pacific Storm Derek will officially be called.  Right now the system looks like a starting category two, but it may hold the risk of thunderstorms for some locations so read on for those details and find your area.

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Tracking models here at SCWF that were used in the long range for Pacific Storm Carolyn have run and these models are pinpoint the lift-zone hitting Southern California on Thursday.  The impacts will vary widely per region and it looks similar to the last one where areas Los Angeles/Orange County westward saw the most rainfall, especially Ventura and Santa Barbara County.  However unlike last time the San Luis Obispo County will also be in the area of most rainfall.  Due to the type of front this is, gusty winds will be possible with the front.

Areas further south and east into the Inland Empire and San Diego will also get some rain on Thursday, however in terms of accumulations for Downtown San Diego it is a toss up because storms like this drench Ventura County more due to the mountains to the north of them and a dragging front would bring a quick round of rainfall into San Diego as a result.  So yes, San Diego, you will have less rainfall potential with the initial front on Thursday.

Same with Kern County Bakersfield Zones … a rain-shadow will bring much less precipitation than areas across Ventura.

Thunderstorms will become possible on the secondary more convective front on Friday.  This is the convective and vorticity advection zone of what would be Pacific Storm Derek.  Should this hit according to our model guidance here at SCWF, we will see an increase in thunderstorm probabilities from LA/OC/IE/SD areas.

Snow levels on the initial front looks high, however cautioning that the secondary front on Friday knocks them down below resort levels so this is the chance you will get for snowfall at resort and community levels.

Given this is a jet stream driven storm, strong winds are likely in the mountain/desert regions with it …

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