WARNING: Violent Tornado Dynamics Detected

The Tornado Intensity Model here at NationalWeatherForce has detected violent tornado dynamics being possible for Eastern Arkansas into Western Tennessee for Sunday.  This may shift, but read on for details.

A surface low moving through the Great Lake states will bring in a mesolow feature through Eastern Arkansas on Sunday afternoon/evening, moving through Western Tennessee later in the evening/early night hours. This feature will be the focal point for a supercell capable of producing a tornado capable of EF4 damage.

This feature is similar to the tornado that hit Northern Illinois earlier in the month.  That tornado had a mesolow rotating around the parent surface low.  Although the surface low will be far away, the combination of instability and low level winds increasing through the evening is what will make this storm system produce tornadoes.

Tornadoes are expected in Arkansas with an outbreak fashion, moving into Western Tennessee should it remain on this track.  If it shifts, we’ll come back and redo the outlook again.  For now, the tornado model is pinpointing Northeast Arkansas into Western Tennessee for the violent tornado dynamics.

If in those areas … please continue to monitor the latest weather forecasts and alerts.

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