WARNING: Hurricane Joaquin Batters Bahamas, East Coast Remain On Watch

Hurricane Joaquin is a Major Hurricane, battering the Bahamas.  The latest NWF plot shows a similar track like Hurricane Floyd, east of Florida, and into the East Coast.  The storm is refusing a due north turn and remains westerly.  Then reasoning can be read by reading the entire article.

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Hurricane Joaquin is not starting his northerly track yet.  All models never predicted the west track into the Bahamas, however the closest was the tracking done here at National Weather Force.  Joaquin remains on a westerly track, with some west-west-northwest motion it likely will go right through the rest of the Bahamas, right down the middle.  Because of the intensity gain, the storm will not start the north track anytime soon … if I’m right.

Tracking here at National Weather Force continues to show a northwest movement right down the center of the Bahama Island chain and then the north turn starts well east of Florida, similar to Hurricane Floyd in 1999.  The tracking chart shows red, orange, yellow, and green … those are not intensity tracks … they are confidence dots with red being high, yellow moderate, and green low/moderate -  but generally in agreement the north turn would take an aim at the North Carolina area.

Many computer models elsewhere have this backing off and going out to sea.   A 150 degree turn in 6 hours is not realistic to me and I cannot go with those options.  Seeing we have a trough digging over the Southeastern USA, this would be pulled northward along it … and then a ridge developing southeast of the storm would start the northeast turn .. but that turn NE could come late and if it does it will be North Carolina’s storm.

Continued monitoring of the system will happen and if this keeps on the northwest track and further west of the other forecasts, watches will be issued over the alert system here at National Weather Force -

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