EUROPE'S IMPOSSIBLE GREENSHIFT

GOING CRITICAL: EUROPE’S IMPOSSIBLE GREEN SHIFT

Andrew McKillop

June 2011

Nine days before taking over the rotating European Union presidency on July 1st, Poland has flatly opposed moves by global warming extremists to further increase the European Union’s already unrealistic, probably unattainable CO2 emission cut proposals, called targets.

Poland has demanded that the 27-nation bloc maintains its existing targets, approved in December 2008, for a 20 percent cut of CO2 emissions, calculated on unsure or “flexible” bases, by 2020. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk instructed his environment minister, Andrezj Kraszewski, to oppose a proposed doubling of emissions cuts, to 40 percent from a baseline set at 1990 for some measures, but able to use a higher-emission base year of 2005 for some delegations and certain proposals, which is under discussion at European Commission and EU environment and energy ministerial meetings.

Poland, as rotating president of the EU for six months can block any attempt at pushing Europe’s CO2 emission cuts proposals even further. As an unidentified diplomat noted to AFP on June 21 “Everything is frozen. This refusal means no new action for six months”

PREDICTABLE REACTION

The WWF’s energy chief Jason Anderson condemned the Polish move as “showing a shocking disregard for climate protection and economic revitalisation”. The European Commission’s environment commissioner, Connie Hedegaard described it as “disappointing”, and British energy minister Chris Huhne took a predictably doom-laden stance, saying: “I’m deeply disappointed that the only country in the EU that could not accept a good compromise on how we can move Europe to a low carbon economy was Poland,” adding “It’s a dark day for Europe’s leading role in tackling climate change, but the UK together with its European colleagues will continue to make the economic case for tighter EU carbon targets so that we can make the most of the future green economy”.

The Polish action comes soon after a leapfrogging process of raising targets for CO2 cuts by several key “green economy” promoting countries. These had already proposed, in March 2011, that EU emission cut targets for 2020 should be raised 50 percent. Environment and energy ministers of Britain, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Sweden had called for a 30 percent cut by 2020. By June they had upped their demands, with ministers attending the talks discussing proposals to cut CO2 emissions in 2030 by 40 percent compared to 1990, not 2005, with cuts extended to 60 percent by 2040, and 80 percent by 2050.

While earlier meetings, up to March, included acceptance or approval of these new tougher emission cutting proposals by France, Italy and some other EU states, “climate solidarity” was beginning to fall apart by this month. By June, only a core group of 7 EU states remained in favour of doubling the targets, and dissent inside these countries is rising. The UK’s Conservative party with majority power in the UK coalition government is now faced with open revolt on its plainly unattainable CO2 targets, from Conservative members of the European parliament.

The revolt of the UK Tory MEPs is an embarrassment for prime minister Cameron and his Energy minister Huhne, who have committed Britain to some of the most ambitious greenhouse gas targets in the world, and Cameron has proudly proclaimed himself as leading “the greenest government ever”.

THE DARK GREEN ECONOMY

As the European version of the OECD debt-and-deficit crisis shows, steep economic recession most surely cuts CO2 emission, along with jobs – but not debts – much more than talk about the green economy. Some of the most-affected countries facing Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, such as Ireland, Greece, Portugal and some East European member countries have cut oil consumption as much as 15 – 18 percent from a 2007 baseline, also accompanied by sometimes steep cuts in electricity, coal and gas consumption.

Using a 2005 baseline for CO2 emissions and the original December 2008 EU target for a 20 percent cut by 2020, this is already far advanced as of 2011 – in the most recession racked countries of the Union. To be sure, we can ask if this may now by default become the real policy for EU heads of state and political leaders: shift to the green subsistence, austerity and mass unemployment economy through racking energy prices up while outsourcing industrial activity – and playact surprised at the result.

Highly ironically, the amounts of newly printed cash thrown at the debt crisis dwarf all spending on oil imports, even by countries 100 percent dependent on oil importing to cover their energy needs. In the most extreme Greek case, its present national debt financing need as of June 2011, for about 12 billion euros-per-month to stay afloat, can be compared with its spending on imported oil, now running at about 900 million euros-per-month. The supposed “energy independence” goal and claim for green energy can be be relativised by these real world figures: Greek debt bailouts are presently costing around 14 times Greek national oil import costs at current volumes and barrel prices.

WONT GET THERE FROM HERE

Shifting to the green economy will be capital-intensive and long-term, as even its defenders admit. Countries wallowing in hyper-debt and mass unemployment are not in a position to do this, making it necessary to ask why the political and corporate elites keep playacting about the “green shift” zero carbon economy ?

Needed revitalisation of the economy starts with the creation of stable and full employment, but this is brushed aside as an impossible goal – by deciders apeing Al Gore and staying publicly concerned about the fate of polar bears in Greenland, while the real economy falls apart around their feet. The green shift risks being permanently delayed when public rage at economic incompetence and financial corruption explodes, and the Arab revolt surges north into Europe.

Already moving forward each day in Spain and Greece, and latent in Portugal and Ireland, street action by the masses is now a sure part of the near-term European future.

While bailout funding for incomptent economic deciders and corrupt financial “players” has reached massive proportions its real economy impact is not zero, but negative. Ordinary citizens are subjugated to classic IMF austerity cures, featuring the firesale of national assets – paid for by citizen taxes over decades – to private corporations engaged in asset stripping, steep wage cuts, higher value added taxes, reduced education, health and housing spending, which can only generate sure and certain recession.

Under these conditions the official public hopes of creating a “green economy” are simply one more example of political hypocrisy and refusal to act for the public good.

The extremity of the debt crisis is only matched by the extreme unreality of climate-and-energy policies and programmes, still rolled out by the declining band of European political elites committed to this economic sabotage plan.

When the two are placed back-to-back it is starkly clear the elites are engaged in kamikaze economics and have lost all legitimacy to govern. The next stage is therefore clear: public resistance and street action, boycottage of increasingly meaningless election, and counter-sabotage. Already in Greece, many newly privatized highway tolls for gouging higher payments from car drivers have been demolished or disactivated; rolling electric power blackouts are accompanied by free power supply to many users. In Portugal and Ireland, community action to establish barter and labour swap without using money, escaping new much heavier taxes set by the IMF and European Union austerity measures, are growing in many regions.

In this way, community action and popular protest is shifting the economy towards sustaiability – but by default at the highest level of the political process. Here, the ongoing economic sabotage and cynical disinterest in its real economy impacts will soon backfire. In almost any European country today, no incumbent government is likely to be re-elected. Our power elites have gurgled their outdated climate-crisis slogans too long, and action to remove them is now under way.