Brief Reflections on the Mayan 2012 Date

By ROBERT M. SCHOCH, Ph.D.

The 2012 date of the Mayans is a topic I have given serious thought to, and indeed I include discussion of the subject in a forthcoming book.¹ To cut to the chase, let me state that I do not believe that anything dramatic, catastrophic, or cataclysmic will necessarily happen during the year 2012. I have never been a “believer” in the exact precision of the date.

I consider 2012 to be much more figurative than literal. Figurative, that is, in the sense that something will happen, but not necessarily in 2012, nor precisely on 21 December 2012.

Rather, I believe that at some point in the first half of the twenty-first century a major catastrophe may well occur on our planet. What the nature of this event will be, we cannot be absolutely certain; however, much of the evidence points to an extreme solar outburst.

The level of solar activity has been exceptional in recent times (the last two centuries or so), and we must go back over eight thousand years to find comparable levels.² During the last period of extreme solar activity, marked by the Sun belching out major solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar proton events (SPEs) and the like, an ice age was brought to an end.

The modern ramping up of the Sun is evidenced by the 1859 Carrington Event, a major solar outburst that if it happened today would cause widespread devastation to much of our modern infrastructure, including power grid systems, communications systems, and virtually anything and everything of an electronic/electrical nature. A comparable, or greater, solar outburst could occur today, tomorrow, or twenty years from now. We just do not know when.³

According to standard correlations and analyses, the end date of the current Mayan calendar cycle falls on 21 December 2012. This date, a Friday, corresponds to the winter solstice in the Northern Hemisphere. That the Mayans picked this as the “end point” of their calendar may be significant. The fact that they could pick it, as they appear to have done, over a thousand years in advance demonstrates high-level astronomical knowledge and sophistication.

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