IPCC AR5 draft leaked, contains game-changing admission of enhanced solar forcing – as well as a lack of warming to match model projections, and reversal on ‘extreme weather’

Watts Up With That -

UPDATE1: Andrew Revkin at the NYT weighs in, and semi endorses the leak, see update below – Anthony

UPDATE2: Alternate links have been sent to me, should go faster now.  – Anthony

UPDATE3: The main site is down but a large “all in one” RAR file (and bittorrent) has been created by a readers, see below. – Anthony

UPDATE4: 7:30AM PST 12/14/12 reactions are now coming in worldwide, see here, and the IPCC is going to issue a statement today. – Anthony

UPDATE5: 8:30AM PST 12/14/12 The IPCC has issued a statement on the leak, see below. -Anthony

UPDATE6: 12PM PST 12/14/12 The real bombshell of the report is now evident, a lack of warming to match model projections, see it here

UPDATE7: 12:30PM PST 12/14/12 Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. Analysis of UN IPCC Draft report : IPCC ‘shows almost complete reversal from AR4 on trends in drought, hurricanes, floods’

UPDATE8: 5PM PST 12/14/12 Another IPCC reviewer speaks out, this time about water vapor trends – actual data and IPCC contradict each other.

Full AR5 draft leaked here, contains game-changing admission of enhanced solar forcing

(Alec Rawls) I participated in “expert review” of the Second Order Draft of AR5 (the next IPCC report), Working Group 1 (“The Scientific Basis”), and am now making the full draft available to the public. I believe that the leaking of this draft is entirely legal, that the taxpayer funded report report is properly in the public domain under the Freedom of Information Act, and that making it available to the public is in any case protected by established legal and ethical standards, but web hosting companies are not in the business of making such determinations so interested readers are encouraged to please download copies of the report for further dissemination in case this content is removed as a possible terms-of-service violation. My reasons for leaking the report are explained below. Here are the chapters:

From http://www.stopgreensuicide.com/ (which is down now, see updated links below in update #2)

Summary for Policymakers Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing Chapter 8 Supplement Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Chapter 13: Sea Level Change Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change Chapter 14 Supplement Technical Summary

Why leak the draft report?

By Alec Rawls (email) [writing at http://www.stopgreensuicide.com/ ]

General principles

The ethics of leaking tax-payer funded documents requires weighing the “public’s right to know” against any harm to the public interest that may result. The press often leaks even in the face of extreme such harm, as when the New York Times published details of how the Bush administration was tracking terrorist financing with the help of the private sector Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), causing this very successful anti-terror program to immediately collapse.